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The next digital disruptions

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The next digital disruptions Lee Rainie Pew Research Center Director Internet, Science and Technology Research Presented to: Future of the Net Milan, Italy October 5, 2015


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Networked Individualism The move to looser, far-flung networks


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Personal networks are: More important – trust Differently composed – segmented, layered Mediators and feedback providers


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Three digital technology revolutions in the past generation


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1) In U.S. - 89% use the internet (46% in 2000) 70% - broadband @ home (3% in 2000) Italy – 7-in-10 use internet (38% in 2007) 2) In U.S. - 92% use cell phone (53% in 2000) 68% -- smartphone (35% in 2011) Italy – More than 90% use cell phones 60% - smartphones 3) In U.S. 65% use social networking sites (3% in 2005) Italy – more than 60% use social networking A few basics on the Triple Revolution in U.S. and Italy - % of adults


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November 28, 2015 www.pewresearch.org 7


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www.pewresearch.org


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www.pewresearch.org


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www.pewresearch.org


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Future disruptions


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Digital Life in 2025 The Internet will become ‘like electricity’ — less visible, yet more deeply embedded in people’s lives for good and ill


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Upsides: enhanced health, education, convenience, productivity, safety, and vastly more useful information and self-awareness. Downsides: privacy challenges, over-hyped expectations, and tech complexity. The Internet of Things Will Thrive by 2025


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Theme 1) There will be a global, immersive, invisible, ambient networked computing environment built through growth of smart sensors, cameras, software, databases, and artificial intelligence.


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Theme 2) There will be smart agent and augmented-reality enhancements to the real-world input that people perceive through the use of portable / wearable / implantable technologies.


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Theme 3) Social and business encounters and personal and business enrichment will be shaped by virtual reality and telepresence.


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Theme 4) There will tagging, databasing, and intelligent analytical mapping of the physical and social realms.


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Darksides


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Theme 1) The nature of work will change in unprecedented ways as robots and artificial intelligence assume greater roles in job functions


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Theme 2) Privacy will be more at risk and something perhaps only the privileged will enjoy.


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Theme 3) Dangerous divides between haves and have-nots may expand, resulting in resentment and possible violence. http://vis4.net/blog/posts/mapping-internet-and-population/


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Theme 4) Abuses and abusers will ‘evolve and scale.’ Human nature isn’t changing; there’s laziness, bullying, stalking, stupidity, pornography, dirty tricks, crime, and those who practice them have new capacity to make life miserable for others.


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Theme 5) Humans and their organizations may not respond quickly enough to challenges presented by complex networks.


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Grazie mille!


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