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The State of Digital Video

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The State of DIGITAL VIDEO Terence Kawaja LUMA partners


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The Rise of Digital Video


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YouTube Has Dominated the Rise of Digital Video Average  Time  Spent  per  Day   with  Digital  Video  by  Device  in  U.S. U.S.  Digital  Video  Proper6es   Ranked  by  Unique  Video  Viewers Hours 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 29% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2011 Mobile Source: eMarketer, comScore 2012 Tablet 2013 Smartphone 2014 2015 Desktop Other


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But Now It’s Not the Only Game in Town


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Facebook Auto-Play Videos are Ubiquitous 4 Billion Daily Views 75% From Mobile


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Mobile Apps Bring Live Content to Your Fingertips


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Snapchat Has Built Mobile-First Advertising


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Publishers Are Making Video Too


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There Just Isn’t Enough Supply! Display  Ad  CPM $1.90 Source: ZenithOptimedia, Note: Average CPM Video  Ad  CPM $24.60


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Digital Video Spend Continues to Rise $  billions $10.0% $9.5% $9.0% $7.8% $8.0% $7.0% $6.0% $6.0% $5.0% $4.2% $4.0% $3.0% $2.9% CAG %& :&34 R 2%& R:&17 G $2.0% CA $1.0% $0.0% 2012% Source: eMarketer 2013% Digital  Video 2014% 2015% ProgrammaBc  Video 2016%


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But is Still Only a Fraction of the TV Market $  billions $80.0$ $70.0$ $64.5 $66.4 $68.5 $73.8 $70.6 $60.0$ $50.0$ $40.0$ $30.0$ $20.0$ $10.0$ $0.0$ 2012$ 2013$ Digital  Video Source: eMarketer 2014$ ProgrammaBc  Video 2015$ 2016$ TV


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Traditional vs. Digital


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Traditional vs. Digital


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Traditional TV vs. Digital Video Players 100 : 1 19 ~  100 $150  billion $1.5  Billion Buckets Companies Total  Spend $  /  Company 36 ~  400 $6  billion $15  Million


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New Entrants Have Plenty of Money to Build or Buy 5x Cash Market Cap: $2 Trillion Cash: $530 Billion 100 : 1


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2008 Was So Simple: Traditional & Digital Silos Screens Delivery Content


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Convergence Begins with Device Proliferation Second Screen Screens Chromecast / Airplay Delivery Content Partnerships “Netflix + Disney”


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Screens OTT/CTV Delivery Content Partnerships “Netflix + Disney”


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TV Economics


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Traditional TV Content Model CTV 9,000+ UI Channels Devices OTT Content Channels Media MVPDs Device / UI C O N S U M E R


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Traditional TV Content Model “Must Carry” & Broadcast Content Bundles Programs Content Networks Channel Channels Media MVPDs Device / UI C O N S U M E R


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Traditional TV Content Model $40BB $30BB Tier 1 Cable and Broadcast Content Comcast bundles in sports content Spot and Scatter TV ads CPG Upfronts Retrans Fees $6.3BB $80BB Subscriptions $40BB Content Channels Media Affiliate Fees MVPDs Device / UI M A R K E T E R C O N S U M E R


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Bundling Enables Pre-Funding of Content 10% Support 100%


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Bundling Enables Pre-Funding of Content


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Traditional TV Content Model 1993 80MM Most Viewed Episode 1992 52MM Final Late Night Episode 1990 38MM Evolution of Top Rated Show


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Cross channel devices killed the television star! 1993 80MM 2007 30MM 1992 Most Viewed Episode 52MM 2009 8MM 1990 38MM 2013 4MM Final Late Night Episode Evolution of Top Rated Show


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Digital Opens Different Distribution & Content Strategies Subscription content on license Discrete content “Made for web” content Content Channels Media MVPDs “I forget what channel it’s on I just stream it” “Artist to Consumer” “Just broadband only, thanks!” Device / UI C O N S U M E R


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Incremental is Increasingly Expensive on TV! Incremental Cost Per Reach Point Paying 30-50% more for .5-1% more reach?! Big $$$ A18-49 Reach A25-54 Reach Incremental Budget Source: Needham & Co. , Nielsen TRP


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Yet TV Dollars aren’t Slowing… eMarketer TV Spend Projection $0 Source: eMarketer eMarketer Digital Video Spend Projection $0


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TV is Definitely Not Hurting Yet 3 Year Compensation: $186 Million > 2014 Revenue Leslie Moonves, CEO


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Cracks In The Wall


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Slack in Demand for Upfront Buys


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OTT Options are Growing $99/year $50-­‐$70 $20 $15 Stream $15 $8 Source: NPD Group $9 $6 Average  Basic  Cable  Packages ~$120


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Convergence of Two Worlds Premium Content Brand Relationships Integrated Workflow Programmatic Platforms Targeting Technology Attribution / Analytics Low-Cost Production


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Selling Points Reverse in 2015 Upfronts NewFronts Selling  Premium  Content Selling  Data-­‐Driven  Approach


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Selling Points Reverse in 2015 Upfronts NewFronts Selling  Data-­‐Driven  Approach Selling  Premium  Content


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Now TV is Being Aggressive with Data Subscriber  Data Target  Audience Yogurt  Buyers Wireless  Data  Users Frozen  Snack  Buyers Credit  Card  Data Inspired by WSJ


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Digital is Increasing Investment in Original Content Everyone  is  geWng  in  on  the  game ?


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New Tier 1 Shows Backed with Tier 1 Talent


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Digital Dollars Could Double eMarketer TV Spend Projection $0 (1) Assumes 7.5% of TV Spend Shifts to Digital Source: eMarketer eMarketer Digital Video Spend Projection $0


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Perception vs. Reality in Addressable TV Percep6on Linear  TV Programma6c  TV Reality Linear  TV Addressable     Linear  TV Video  On     Demand (VOD) Over  The  Top (OTT) Digital     Video Programma6c  TV


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WARNING: LUMA Decks Usually Call for More M&A


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Convergent TV via M&A CONTENT DISTRIBUTION Media MONETIZATION


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33 Video Deals in the Last 2 Years


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Digital Video Has a Very Bright Future 1.  2.  3.  4.  5.  6.  Preferred Consumer Media Continued Device New Content Formats Ad Inventory Shortage TV Demand Shift Strategic Exit Opportunities


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Thank you! LUMA partners Access. Insights. Execution. New York | San Francisco | Palo Alto @tkawaja


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