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The Growth Game-Changer: How the Industrial Internet of Things can drive progress and prosperity

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The Growth Game-Changer: How the Industrial Internet of Things can drive progress and prosperity January 2015


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Contents Seizing the Trillion Dollar Opportunity The Challenge of Economic Diffusion Driving Economic Diffusion Five Ways to Win Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. 2


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In the shift from an industrial to a digital economy, many countries are targeting the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) as a means to deliver faster growth. But without establishing the right enabling conditions, they will not fully capture the opportunity. To make this happen, countries need to understand their “national absorptive capacity” (NAC)—their ability to weave innovations into their economic and social fabric—and how that influences their ability to grow. How can countries get started? Accenture analyzed 20 countries to identify their NACs and how NACs affect IIoT economic potential Economic modeling revealed US$10.6 trillion in additional GDP by 2030 for the 20 nations as a result of the IIoT …and that’s just based on today’s investment and policy trends With additional investment and intervention… US$3.6 trillion could be added to that total! How can policy and business leaders capture these enormous benefits? THE BIG IDEA Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. 3


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Seizing the Trillion Dollar Opportunity Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. 4


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In the shift from an industrial to a digital economy, countries are targeting the Industrial Internet of Things as a means to deliver faster growth David Cameron, 2014 The UK and Germany could find themselves on the forefront of a new industrial revolution.” IoT has the potential to enhance Europe's competitiveness and will be an important driver for the development of an information based economy and society.” European Research Cluster on the IoT, 2013 The Internet of Things can lead to a rebirth of manufacturing in the US.” Michael Mandel, Progressive Policy Institute, 2013 2/3 Accenture survey, 2014 business leaders believe the IIoT will lead to long-term job growth. CNN, 2012 US$800M Accenture survey, 2014 Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. 5 Chinese government investment into IIoT by 2015. business leaders said the IIoT would offer emerging markets the ability to leapfrog developed economies.


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What is the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT)? The IIoT is the industrial application of a network of physical objects that contain embedded technology to communicate and sense or interact with their internal states or the external environment. Business Impact Consumer Impact Public Sector Impact More control over life, leisure, and health Greater efficiency in business processes Productivity and innovation in public delivery systems Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. 6


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How can the IIoT deliver faster growth? The IIoT’s national impact will be felt in a number of ways. But not all of them will show up in formal GDP measures. Greater productivity New market opportunities Faster cycles of innovation Improved quality of life Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. 7


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Current Conditions Improved Conditions Our analysis shows that the IIoT could be worth US$14.2 trillion in the next 15 years Forecasts show sizeable potential gains We evaluated 20 leading mature and emerging economies…….. 1.5% 0.2% US$10.6 tn 50% Improvement in enabling factors US$3.6 tn Lift in GDP in mature markets in 2030 Lift in GDP in emerging markets in 2030 Increase in IIoT investment Value of cumulative GDP uplift by 2030 …….and calculated the impact of additional measures …….. Value of cumulative GDP uplift by 2030 Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. 8


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The Challenge of Economic Diffusion Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. 9


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Without the right enabling conditions for the economic diffusion of IIoT, countries may not reap the rewards it promises Technology diffusion describes a relatively limited process of technology adoption—economic diffusion carries broader implications. It begins with technology diffusion, but also reflects growth, innovation, and financial reward spread across multiple sectors and industries. Source: The Cross-country Historical Adoption of Technology (CHAT) dataset, Accenture analysis Gross output of electricity energy per capita Era of industrial electrification Era of consumer electrification US UK FRANCE ITALY KwHr (thousand) As the story of electrification teaches us, rolling out a new technology is only the first step—capitalizing on its economic potential is the next. Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. 10


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Driving Economic Diffusion Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. 11


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Leaders can assess a nation’s economic diffusion of the IIoT from the National Absorptive Capacity (NAC) Index To assess the economic diffusion of the IIoT, countries must understand the factors that underpin this process—which we call “national absorptive capacity”. We identified four pillars that underlie a country’s NAC. NAC INDEX Business Commons How technological and institutional foundations are facilitating the IIoT Take-off Factors How rapidly IIoT technologies are being scaled and spread across the wider society Transfer Factors How firms, consumers and society are embracing IIoT technologies Innovation Dynamo How the IIoT is creating self-sustaining innovation and development Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. 12


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The NAC Index How do countries perform on the NAC Index? Source: Accenture and Frontier Economics The United States, Switzerland and three Nordic countries are the furthest ahead in terms of their NACs, but they also exhibit room for improvement within each of the four pillars. Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. 13


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How do the NACs affect the economic potential of the IIoT? Cumulative GDP Impact of IIoT In the 20 countries we analyzed, current policy and investment trends in IIoT products and technologies point to cumulative real GDP contributions of US$10.6 trillion by 2030. With greater investment and the enactment of key measures to absorb IIoT technologies, that figure could rise to US$14.2 trillion. US$ trillion With additional measures Under current conditions Source: Accenture and Frontier Economics Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. 14


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Country spotlights Cumulative GDP Impact of IIoT US$ billion United States US$ billion United Kingdom US$ billion Germany US$ billion China Source: Accenture and Frontier Economics With additional measures Under current conditions Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. 15


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Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. 16 Five Ways to Win


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Five ways to win Make IIoT investments that work with the grain of the economy Play to the country’s strengths Create a chain reaction across industries Combat resource deficiencies Shorten the investment lag Join the dots to connect and collaborate Create new ecosystems that cut across traditional industry boundaries and value chains—look to product-service hybrids Connect various stakeholders together Turn strategy into reality by promoting experimental, pilot and demonstration projects in IIoT applications Decide whether to “make-or-buy” resources including skills, capital and technology 5 1 2 3 4 Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. 17


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Additional Reading How to ensure that the Industrial Internet of Things delivers on its promises can be accessed at Accenture Outlook The Growth Game-Changer: How the Industrial Internet of Things can drive progress and prosperity can be accessed here Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. 18


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Mark Purdy Managing director and chief economist mark.purdy@accenture.com Ladan Davarzani Thought-leadership research manager ladan.davarzani@accenture.com For more information about the report, contact the authors: Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. 19 Follow this link for more information about the Accenture Institute for High Performance


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