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The Future Of Digital: 2014

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A Research Service By Business Insider The Future Of Digital: 2014


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intelligence.businessinsider.com Tony Danova Senior Research Analyst BI Intelligence


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There are now nearly 3 billion people online Source: International Communication Union, Google


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Four billion to go Source: International Communication Union, Google


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Attention is shifting to digital, especially mobile Source: eMarketer, April 2014


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This is a generational shift Source: Ofcom


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One law of media…


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Money follows eyeballs.


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Ad spending is moving to digital (and mobile) Source: IAB, U.S. Census Bureau, Strategy Analytics, BI Intelligence estimates


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Print ads have fallen off a cliff Source: Newspaper Association Of America *Estimate


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Google is now bigger than all newspapers, magazines Source: Google, NAA, PIB


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Google now dwarfs “big media” Source: Company Filings, BI Intelligence estimates


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Google is almost half the size of all global TV advertising Source: Google, PWC


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For many years TV folks have (rightly) laughed off digital concerns


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Time to stop laughing.


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Ratings are falling… Source: Nielsen


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Pay TV subscriptions are dropping… Source: Leichtman Research Group


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Facebook reaches more young people than free TV Source: Nielsen, January 2013


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Netflix now has more US subscribers than HBO Source: Netflix, SNL Kagan


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YouTube reaches more 18-34s than any cable network


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Digital video revenue is no longer a joke… Source: BI Intelligence estimates, Company Filings


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iTunes and Netflix already dwarf small cable networks Source: News Reports, Company Filings


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YouTube is closing in on broadcast-network revenue Source: News Reports, BI Intelligence estimates, Company Filings


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(Some) live sports are now being streamed Source: Ooyala 2014


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TV now has to share attention with digital Source: Millward Brown, 2014


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So, eyeballs are leaving TV


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But, so far, TV money is hanging in there


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TV still massive, digital video still a blip Source: Nielsen, IAB


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So no worries in TV land?


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Yes, worries.


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It’s a generational shift — look what Millennials are doing Source: Ofcom


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Money follows eyeballs… Source: Mary Meeker, IAB, eMarketer


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So it’s only a matter of time.


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What’s going on in digital?


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Smartphone sales are still booming Source: IDC, Strategy Analytics, BI Intelligence estimates


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Tablets have carved out a chunk of PC sales Source: Gartner, IDC, Strategy Analytics, Company Releases


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“Phablets” are replacing small smartphones Source: BI Intelligence estimates


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Nearly half of TVs are now connected Source: Leichtman Research Group, BI Intelligence estimates


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“Wearables” are overhyped but growing Source: BI Intelligence estimates


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Cars are increasingly connected Source: SBD, GSMA


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300 million PCs are still sold each year Source: Gartner, IDC, BI Intelligence estimates


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Should you be “mobile only?”


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No!


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It’s a “multi-screen” world Source: Gartner, IDC, Strategy Analytics, Company Filings, BI Intelligence estimates


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You should be “mobile, too.”


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~60% of online devices are now smartphones or tablets Source: BI Intelligence estimates


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We spend an hour a day on our smartphones Source: Experian Marketing Services, May 2013


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We spend ? hour on tablet each time we use it Source: Google, August 2012


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More than ? of Internet traffic is mobile Source: StatCounter, BI Intelligence estimates


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Mobile has extended the digital day to 18/7 Source: Google Analytics, Business Insider


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Each device has a different “prime time” Source: comScore, Telefonica, Macquarie Capital (USA), December 2011


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Where are we in the mobile device cycle?


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Developed mobile markets are nearing maturity Source: comScore


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The action is now in China, India, and emerging markets Source: Mediacells via The Guardian


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China is already twice the size of the US market Source: China Internet Network Information Center


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Prices are dropping fast Source: BI Intelligence estimates


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iPhone sales growth has slowed (iPhone 6 will help) Source: Company Filings


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Chinese companies sell ~25% of smartphones in world Source: Canalys, IDC, Strategy Analytics, BI Intelligence, Company Reports


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Global tablet growth has hit a wall Source: IDC, Strategy Analytics, BI Intelligence estimates


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(iPad now experiencing “negative growth”) Source: Apple


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Why have tablet sales cratered?


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Long upgrade cycle Phablet cannibalization Need keyboard for serious input Price


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What about the platform war?


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We have a winner!


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Apple is strong in the US, where it’s a two-horse race Source: comScore


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But, globally, it’s an Android world


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~85% of smartphones run Google’s Android Source: IDC, Strategy Analytics, BI Intelligence estimates


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~65% of tablets run Android Source: BI Intelligence estimates


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~70% of all new computing gadgets run Android Source: Gartner, IDC, Strategy Analytics, Company Filings, BI Intelligence estimates


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Android used to lag Apple badly with app developers.


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Not anymore.


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Android “fragmentation” problem is improving Source: Google


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Android now more popular with developers than iOS Source: Developer Economics, Q3 2014


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Android will soon overtake iOS in app revenue Source: Jana, App Annie, BI Intelligence estimates


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Android is catching up to iOS in developer payouts Source: Jana, App Annie, BI Intelligence estimates


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Android now generates more global ad traffic than iOS Source: Opera Mediaworks


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The key digital media trends…


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Mobile Social Native Video Programmatic


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Most digital growth is now mobile Source: comScore, April 2014


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Messaging apps are exploding Source: Company Statements, News Reports, BI Intelligence estimates


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Social networks and sharing are exploding Source: BI Intelligence estimates based on data from company filings, comScore, Global Web Index, Totem and news reports


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Mobile video is booming… Source: Cisco, 2013


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Mobile video has enabled the rise of the YouTube stars Source: Company Filings 35 million viewers 8 million viewers 1 million viewers


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Social and music are now mostly mobile Source: Company Filings


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Mobile is driving all of Facebook’s growth Source: Company Filings


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Mobile is now a third of eCommerce traffic Source: Monetate


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PayPal powers $30 billion in mobile payments *PayPal counted a small portion of Braintree’s transaction volume as its own in the last 12 days of Q4 2013. Source: PayPal


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Venmo is (finally) replacing friend-to-friend payments Source: PayPal, BI Intelligence


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Ad growth is mobile, social, video, native, programmatic Source: BI Intelligence estimates based on data from BIA/Kelsey, IAB, IDC, and Magna Global Note: Formats overlap. Mobile includes all ad formats that appear on mobile.


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Mobile is a “green field” Source: eMarketer


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Social is booming Source: BI Intelligence estimates, BIA/Kelsey


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“Display” ad spending is still respectable, but… Source: Company Filings, BI Intelligence estimates


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Growth is shifting to “native”… Source: BI Intelligence estimates, IAB


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And “programmatic” Source: BI Intelligence estimates, Magna Global, IDC


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Google is still the digital advertising king Source: Company Filings Note: Based on GAAP revenue.


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Google’s YouTube dominates digital video and video ads Source: Company Filings, BI Intelligence estimates


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Google’s Chrome browser is crushing Firefox and IE Source: StatCounter


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Google’s Android has peak-Windows-like market share Source: IDC, Strategy Analytics, BI Intelligence estimates


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In Europe, Google has peak-Windows-like search share Source: StatCounter


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Basically, Google is swallowing the world… Source: Google, 2014 Is An Estimate


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(And people are noticing!) Source: StatCounter


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(For Microsoft, DOJ attack was the beginning of the end) Source: StatCounter


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Have Google and Facebook won?


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Not necessarily.


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Money follows eyeballs.


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Search click growth is finally decelerating Source: Google


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US desktop search queries are now shrinking Source: comScore Note: Explicit user initiated search queries only.


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“No one uses Facebook anymore” — Gen Z-er Source: Piper Jaffray


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Why do teens love Instagram?


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What’s Tumblr for?


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What about phone calls? Do people talk anymore?


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Digital is the medium for the new generation. Digital will grow for decades.


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So, what’s next?


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Connected cars — we spend 1.2 hours a day in them Source: Bureau Of Labor Statistics


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Wearables (someday) Source: BI Intelligence estimates


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Smartwatches, like Apple Watch, should do okay Source: BI Intelligence estimates


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Fitness bands will remain niche Source: NPD Group, BI Intelligence estimates; Annual Data From April Through March


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“Internet of Things” — 20B connected devices by 2020 Source: BI Intelligence estimates


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We’ll fill our houses with smart devices Source: ABI Research, TechNavio, Pike Research, BI Intelligence estimates


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And companies will buy them by the billions Source: BI Intelligence estimates


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Thank You! intelligence.businessinsider.com


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