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State of Bitcoin Q3 2014

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State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 7th October 2014 1 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014


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Contents Summary and Adoption Dashboard Price and Valuation Media VC Investment Commerce Technology Regulation and Macro 2 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014


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About CoinDesk World leader in digital currency news, prices and information Our Bitcoin Price Index serves as an industry reference point London-based and remote team with a global focus Our editors are based in London, Boston, San Francisco and Tokyo 3 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014


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4 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Summary and Adoption Dashboard


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Q3 2014 Summary 5 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Bitcoin is further integrating with existing payment infrastructure (eg PayPal, Square) and some banks Overall, the bitcoin ecosystem appears to have entered a relatively ‘quiet building’ phase in Q3 All-time bitcoin VC investment up to $317m; 2014 run rate on track to well exceed 1995 Internet Regulatory environment continues to see challenges (eg NY BitLicenses, Kyrgyzstan ban) Ever larger businesses continue to adopt bitcoin (eg Dell, which is offering 10% off certain products with bitcoin) Bitcoin’s price down 40% in Q3, down another 10% at start of Q4 amid much debate about causes


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Key Bitcoin Adoption Metrics 6 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Sources: CoinDesk, Blockchain.info, BitcoinPulse, Github, Coin ATM Radar. Figures used are as of end of quarter. *Includes recent Q4 deals (eg Blockchain $30.5m).


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7 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Price and Valuation


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CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index – Q3 & YTD by the Numbers 8 Source: CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index, daily data collected at 00:00 UTC www.coindesk.com/price


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A Remarkable Coincidence? 9 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 +39.4% -39.6% Bitcoin’s price dropped in Q3 by an almost identical % as its rise in Q2 %? of Q3/Q2 Close Price %? of Q2/Q1 Close Price Source: CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index, daily data collected at 00:00 UTC www.coindesk.com/price


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Bitcoin’s Price Has Been Declining on Steadily Rising Trading Volume 10 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 18 Aug Bitcoin price suddenly drops in ‘flash crash’ 11 Aug 18 Jul Dell announces it will accept bitcoin Blockchain first company to pass over 2m bitcoin wallets 22-23 Sep PayPal and Square announce bitcoin integration 8 Jul Xapo announces $20m funding round Source: CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index, daily data collected at 00:00 UTC www.coindesk.com/price 9 Jul Bitcoin industry discussion of concerns over mining pool 51% network control Following complaints, NY extends BitLicense comment period 21 Aug 9 Sep Supposed Satoshi Nakamoto email account ‘hack’, blackmail attempt


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Total Exchange Trading Volume Sees Steady Growth 11 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Source: CoinDesk, Bitcoinity


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Chinese Yuan (Renminbi) Denominated Bitcoin Trading Continues to Gain Share on US Dollar 12 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 CNY vs USD Denominated Bitcoin Trading Market Share, Monthly BTC (unit) volume, April – September 2014 Source: Bitcoinity. Based on exchange data from ANXBTC, Bitfinex, Bitstamp, BTC China, BTC-e, Huobi, LakeBTC, and OKCoin.


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Growing Merchant Adoption Should Not Drive Down Bitcoin’s Price 13 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Consumer converts fiat to bitcoin Consumer spends bitcoin at merchant Merchant utilizes payment processor Payment processor converts bitcoin to fiat ‘The Virtuous Bitcoin Commerce Cycle’ Right now, there are too few merchant transactions to have a significant influence on price (eg Overstock.com is only averaging $15k/day in sales conducted in bitcoin*) In the short-term, it’s true that timing differences may lead to commerce supply-demand imbalances Over the medium term, however, bitcoin-to-fiat conversions by payment processors should be balanced by fiat-to-bitcoin conversions by bitcoin-spending consumers *Source: http://www.coindesk.com/overstock-reveals-bitcoin-sales-averaging-15000-per-day/


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The Mining Arms Race: A More Plausible Bitcoin Price Drop Theory? 14 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 To remain competitive, miners – who possess perhaps the largest (and ever-growing) supply of bitcoins – must sell bitcoins to finance running costs and hardware upgrades Bitcoin Network Hash Rate (billions of hashes/second), 2010 – Present Source: Blockchain.info


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Other Possible Explanations for Bitcoin’s Price Decline Include … Early adopter sales Technology equities correction Strong US dollar Technical (chart) trends 51% attack concerns Global instability Lower bitcoin price volatility = fewer speculators Seasonal factors (eg “sell in May and go away”) Regulatory concerns (eg NY BitLicenses) Competition concerns (eg Apple Pay) 15 State of Bitcoin Q2 2014


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State of Altcoins: Number of Altcoins Up 2x in Last Six Months, but Market Cap Share Down 65%* 16 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Sources: CoinMarketCap, Internet Archive *Note: altcoin market cap share calculated by dividing the sum of all non-bitcoin cryptocurrency market caps by all cryptocurrency market caps (including bitcoin). For example, if altcoins have 8% market value share, then bitcoin has 92% market value share.


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While Significantly Below March 2014 High, Current Relative Value of Altcoins is in Line With Historical Average 17 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Note: altcoin market cap share calculated by dividing the sum of all non-bitcoin cryptocurrency market caps by all cryptocurrency market caps (including bitcoin). For example, if altcoins have 8% market value share then bitcoin has 92% market value share. Sources: CoinMarketCap, Internet Archive


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18 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Media


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Selection of Q3’s Biggest Bitcoin Stories 19 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Debate about causes of mid-August bitcoin price crash and downward price trend Mainstream payments services announce bitcoin integration Dell becomes the largest company to accept bitcoins as a means of payment Google integrates bitcoin price into search


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Seven of the Most Popular CoinDesk Q3 Stories About Bitcoin’s Price (vs Four in Q2) 20 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Source: CoinDesk


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Continued Mainstream Media Interest in Bitcoin 21 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Source: respective publishers’ websites


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Innovative Tools are Emerging to Monitor Attitudes Towards Bitcoin 22 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Sources: CoinDesk, Qriously http://www.coindesk.com/sentiment-index/ CoinDesk Bitcoin Sentiment Index (BSI) The Bitcoin Sentiment Index is a measure of whether individuals feel the digital currency’s prospects are increasing or decreasing on any given day Powered by mobile ad data, the index provides a snapshot of the general attitude towards bitcoin in the US and UK


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‘Bitcoin’ Searches During Q3 Stayed Relatively Constant, but Still Well Below Earlier Peaks 23 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Past 90 Days Past 12 Months Source: Google Trends data as of 2 Oct 2014


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Related ‘Bitcoin’ Searches Are Becoming More Sophisticated, Evolving Beyond ‘What is Bitcoin?’ 24 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Source: Google Trends data as of 2 Oct. 2014 Past 90 Days Past 12 Months Related Searches: Top Related Searches: Rising


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25 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 VC Investment


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Two Biggest Bitcoin VC Deals in Q3 26 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 $20m $14m (Series A) September 2014 (Series A) July 2014 Source: CoinDesk (http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/)


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Q3 Bitcoin Venture Capital Investment Down From Q2, Up Slightly Over Q1 27 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 $317m $60m Total VC investment in cryptocurrency startups to date*: Q3 2014 bitcoin VC investment: $73m Q2 2014 bitcoin VC investment: Source: CoinDesk (http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/) +41% Increase in total to-date VC investment from end of Q2*: *Q3 figure excludes recent Q4 deals (eg Blockchain $30.5m) but all-time figure of $317m and % growth includes these Q4 deals.


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Europe Heats Up: Gained Overall Investment Share Again in Q3 and Saw the Largest Q/Q % Increase 28 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 $ Invested as of Q2 Latin America had the second largest Q/Q % increase in investment US & Canada share declined slightly, but still dominates with 71% of all VC $ to date Note: $ invested represents all-time total bitcoin VC investment at the end of each respective quarter. Source: CoinDesk (http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/) $ Invested as of Q3


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While the US Continues to Dominate Bitcoin VC Investment, its Total Share Declined 7% in Q3 29 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Source: CoinDesk (http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/)


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Silicon Valley’s Share of All-Time Bitcoin VC Investment Slipped Slightly From 48% in Q2 to 44% 30 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Share of VC-backed bitcoin companies based in Silicon Valley continues to slide, down from 37% in Q2 to 33% in Q3 Total number of VC-backed bitcoin companies increased from 49 in Q2 to 64 in Q3, a 31% increase $ Invested No. of Companies Source: CoinDesk (http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/)


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Bitcoin VC Investment is Broadening Around the Globe 31 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Six new countries (Germany, Denmark, India, Japan, Luxembourg and Panama) added their first VC-backed bitcoin startups in Q3, a 2x increase over the number of new countries in Q2 Source: CoinDesk (http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/)


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2014 Bitcoin VC Investment Projected to Surpass Early-Stage Internet Investments 32 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Source: CoinDesk, PricewaterhouseCoopers


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The Bitcoin Startup Ecosystem: Six Different Bitcoin Company Categories 33 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014


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Wallets Raised the Most Funding in Q3, Followed by Financial Services and Mining 34 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014


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Universals Still Command the Most VC Investment, but Share Slipped by 3% in Q3 35 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Wallets, Financial Services, and Mining sectors continued to receive the lion’s share of investment in Q3 Exchanges have only received a combined $4 million over the last two quarters $ Invested as of Q2 $ Invested as of Q3 Note: $ invested represents all-time total bitcoin VC investment at the end of each respective quarter. Source: CoinDesk (http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/)


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Increasing Number of Universal Bitcoin Companies (Up Over 2x Q/Q) 36 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 As we correctly forecasted in the Q2 State of Bitcoin, “more and more bitcoin startups will pursue the universal model” Universals operate across more than one aspect of the bitcoin value chain (eg Coinplug provides payment processing, wallet and ATM) Universal bitcoin companies leverage two key elements of financial services: efficiency and trust The Universals


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Q3 Investment Rounds in Bitcoin Startups (contd.) 37 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Source: CoinDesk (http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/)


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Q3 Investment Rounds in Bitcoin Startups (contd.) 38 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Source: CoinDesk (http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/)


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Q3 Investment Rounds in Bitcoin Startups (contd.) 39 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Source: CoinDesk (http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/)


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40 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Commerce


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>75K Merchants Now Accept Bitcoin, Up From 63K in Q2 (+19%) 41 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 40K 35K Source: Coinbase and BitPay


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Total merchants Forecasted merchants Forecast Cut for Bitcoin-Accepting Merchants by 10K to 90K by End of Year 42 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Sources and notes: total current merchants based on data from Coinbase and BitPay. Historical Coinbase data provided by BitcoinPulse. BitPay historical data between new merchant press release announcements of 10,000 (16th Sep 2013), 20,000 (13th Jan 2014) and 30,000 (28th May 2014), respectively, calculated using linear interpolation.


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Dell is by Far the Largest Retailer to Date to Accept Bitcoin 43 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 @Dell tweet: If you’re a retailer, there’s really no reason not to accept bitcoin at this point “ ” Source: CoinDesk, Absolute Return $56.9 billion annual revenue


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Companies Representing >$85 Billion in Annual Revenue Now Accept Bitcoin 44 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014


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Some Merchants are Seeing Significant Sales in Bitcoin 45 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Overstock.com is averaging $15k per day in goods sold for bitcoin and is forecasting over $1m per month by fourth quarter in 2014 Patrick Byrne, Overstock +233% Source: http://www.coindesk.com/overstock-reveals-bitcoin-sales-averaging-15000-per-day/


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A Growing Number of Compelling Reasons to Use Bitcoin to Make Purchases 46 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Dell is offering up to 10% off certain products for purchases made with bitcoin Purse.io customers often save 10-25% on Amazon Wish List items purchased by third parties seeking to acquire bitcoins for fiat


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Total Wallets Forecasted Wallets Approximately 8 Million Bitcoin Wallets Still Forecasted by End of Year 47 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 R2 = 0.9365 Sources and notes: total wallets based on data from Blockchain.info, MultiBit, Coinbase, Andreas Schildbach (Android Bitcoin Wallet developer). Historical Coinbase data provided by BitcoinPulse.


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Bitcoin Remains the Coin of Choice in the Post-Silk Road Online Black Market 48 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 The view that bitcoin would be quickly supplanted by DarkCoin or another theoretically more anonymous altcoin for black market use appears to be unfounded Source: Wired http://www.wired.com/2014/09/agora-bigger-than-silk-road/ Agora, which is larger than Silk Road 2.0, only accepts bitcoins


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More and More Bitcoin Companies are Advertising Their Insurance Protection to Customers 49 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 However, the question remains whether companies that have bypassed insurance (eg Blockchain), or openly eschew it (eg BitReserve), will see lower customer adoption Insured by Aon Insured by Marsh Insured through London specialist market, brokered by CBC Insurance Insured by Meridian


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Now Over 260 Bitcoin ATMs Around the World 50 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Source: CoinDesk (http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-atm-map/)


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Most Bitcoin ATMs Concentrated in North America and Europe 51 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Lamassu accounts for over a third of the bitcoin ATM market Source: CoinDesk


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52 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Technology


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Rise of Discus Fish Mining Pool as a GHash Counterbalance Has Tempered 51% Attack Concerns 53 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Source: 4-day average as of 2 Oct 2014 blockchain.info/pools


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Bitcoin Developer Ecosystem Continues to Grow, but Has Slowed Recently 54 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Developer engagement on open-source projects is tapering Source: BitcoinPulse


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Will the Decline in the Number of Bitcoin Nodes Leave Bitcoin Overly Centralized? 55 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Source: BitcoinPulse Bitcoin network nodes are needed to ensure all valid bitcoin transactions that occur are broadcasted in a timely manner The number of bitcoin nodes has fallen from a peak of 250k at the end of 2013 to under 7k


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Bitcoin’s Inverted Pyramid Problem Persists 56 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Mike Hearn, bitcoin core developer: “Basically, progress on the bitcoin protocol has ground to a halt.” Questions around how much the problem is due to a lack of funding and personnel vs governance issues The multi-billion dollar bitcoin ecosystem, comprised of hundreds of companies and thousands of people … … rests on the work of a small handful of core bitcoin protocol developers Source (Mike Hearn quote): Epicenter Bitcoin


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Bitcoin 2.0: Possible ‘Native Apps’ 57 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Allocating bandwidth, storage, compute: new ways to share and trade networked resources Smart marketplaces: open up access to crowdfunding and crowd labor services (oDesk, 99 Designs, Beacon Reader, Mechanical Turk) to anyone with a smartphone Micropayments: enabling micropayments on the web and not just for mobile in-app payments Incentivized social software: supplementing likes, followers, karma, upvotes etc with monetary incentives Sources: http://avc.com/2014/09/the-bitcoin-hype-cycle/ and http://cdixon.org/2014/10/04/some-ideas-for-native-bitcoin-apps/ “I am thinking that we will start to see native applications of bitcoin. These would be things that simply could not exist without this technology.” – Fred Wilson


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58 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Regulation and Macro


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Launch of New Bitcoin Advocacy Groups Emphasizes Ongoing Regulatory Challenges 59 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Jerry Brito, Coin Center Questions exist around how related Coin Center’s launch is with ongoing controversy surrounding the Bitcoin Foundation Jon Matonis, Bitcoin Foundation Perianne Boring, Chamber of Digital Commerce


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Bitcoin Businesses are Already Pulling Out of New York Due to BitLicense Concerns 60 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 NY’s Ben Lawsky UK’s George Osborne New York vs London Circle and others have announced they won’t accept NY-based customers if BitLicense rules are implemented in their current form UK Chancellor George Osborne has announced he is looking to make the UK attractive to bitcoin startups and capital Startups like Epiphyte have already relocated from NY to seemingly friendlier London


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Well-Funded Bitcoin Startups are Able to Secure Banking Relationships 61 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Source: CoinDesk (http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/) $27.5m funding $10.0m funding $9.0m funding $5.0m funding Reasons banks hesitate on bitcoin: bigger risks higher costs more work Low ROI regulatory pressure prohibited by regulators


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Secession Votes Prompt Monetary Questions and Could Create Openings for Alternative Currencies 62 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Debate over currency was at the forefront of Scotland’s independence campaign Catalan independence vote scheduled to take place on 9th November


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New Index Ranks 177 Countries by Relative Potential to Adopt Bitcoin 63 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Source: Hileman (2014) ‘Bitcoin Market Potential Index’, London School of Economics working paper. Announcement article: http://www.coindesk.com/argentina-most-likely-adopt-bitcoin/ Rank Country 1 Argentina 2 Venezuela 3 Zimbabwe 4 India 5 Nigeria 6 Brazil 7 United States 8 Nicaragua 9 Russia 10 Iceland Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s Argentina is #1 The Bitcoin Market Potential Index™ (BMPI) – The Top 10


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Index Rankings Determined by Seven Equally Weighted Categories 64 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Index methodology: 39 differently weighted variables (and counting) grouped into the above seven equally weighted sub-index categories Source: Hileman (2014) ‘Bitcoin Market Potential Index’, London School of Economics working paper Announcement article: http://www.coindesk.com/argentina-most-likely-adopt-bitcoin/ ‘Positive’ Index Ranking Drivers ‘Negative’ Index Ranking Drivers


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Latin America Most Fertile Region for Bitcoin, Followed by Africa and Post-Soviet 65 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Source: Hileman (2014) ‘Bitcoin Market Potential Index’, London School of Economics working paper Announcement article: http://www.coindesk.com/argentina-most-likely-adopt-bitcoin/ BMPI Regional Distribution - Top 30 BMPI Regional Distribution - Top 10


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BMPI Heat Map (Interactive Version at BitcoinIQ.info) 66 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Source: Hileman (2014) ‘Bitcoin Market Potential Index’, London School of Economics working paper. Announcement article: http://www.coindesk.com/argentina-most-likely-adopt-bitcoin/ BitcoinIQ.info


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When people write the history of this thing, of bitcoin, they are not going to write the story of 6 million to a billion. What is truly remarkable is the story of zero to 6 million. It has already happened! And we’re not paying attention! That’s incredible. That’s what had one chance in a million and it already happened. Views on Bitcoin 67 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014 Think of the cellphone. There were never more than 1.2 billion landlines. Then the cellphone came and we’re at 6.3 billion. Why? It’s not because only those people wanted to communicate. The landlines were all post-pay. You need to have credit to get one. The cell phones were pre-paid. Suddenly you could get one with cash. It had nothing to do with technology. It was an economic restriction. Now there are 1.5 billion bank accounts, same threshold as land lines. I think bitcoin will allow us to see 6.3 billion people banking on their cell phones. “ “ ” Source: The Verge Wences Casares Xapo


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Appendix - CoinDesk Find out more at www.coindesk.com Follow us on Twitter: @coindesk Subscribe to our daily email newsletters for the latest digital currency news If you have data you think should be included in future State of Bitcoin reports, email stateofbitcoin@coindesk.com We also welcome any feedback you have on the report 68 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014


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Disclaimer CoinDesk makes every effort to ensure that the information in this presentation is accurate and up to date. We cannot, however, accept responsibility for any loss or inconvenience caused by reliance on the material contained here. This presentation does not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation in any way whatsoever. It is recommended that you perform your own independent research and/or speak with a qualified investment professional before making any financial decisions. 69 State of Bitcoin Q3 2014


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