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Бизнес недвижимости

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Бизнес недвижимости 5 Соловьев М.М., д.т.н., проф.


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Деловая игра «Формирование портфеля недвижимости»


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Содержание игры Добиться максимальной прибыли от инвестирования в недвижимость (приобретений приносящих доход объектов недвижимости) на интервале времени 5 лет. Доходы образуют арендные платежи, различные для различных типов приобретаемых объектов. Инвестор формирует портфель, приобретая объекты с различными характеристиками ожидаемых доходов. Арендные доходы, кроме различий объектов, зависят от будущих ситуаций на рынке: оптимистической (высокие доходы), стабильной (без изменений доходности), пессимистической (низкие доходы). Ситуации имитируются вероятностным образом; при этом сформированный портфель не меняют. Результат оценивается как суммарный арендный доход портфеля на протяжении рассматриваемого периода (пять лет).


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Условия игры Each team (investment company) forms its portfolio from acquired real estate objects, which will provide rent income dependently on market parameters in a future time period. It can choose different real estate assets for its portfolio. It has no control over the market provided rent incomes. As an experienced investor it understands difference of portfolio expected rent incomes for different market tendencies (positive or negative) during long-time period. It knows that every year the rent income depends on market situation (optimistic, stable, pessimistic). Each team must determine its risk strategy in order to form its portfolio with better rent income. Teams compete to obtain the best portfolio income during long-time period after portfolios forming.


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Real Estate PORTFOLIO FORMING Portfolio Income during number of years (multi-step result) RE Portfolio Forming Market Situation (T1) Market Situation (T2) Market Situation (T3) Market Situation (T4) Market Situation (T5) Serial of years [T1-T5] … T


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[Statistical Data] t=0 1 2 3 4 5 Future Expectations TO BE DRAWN t ? mln ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Information: *Price of asset *Rent Income *Market stochastic expectations PORTFOLIO FORMING Rent Income of real estate assets


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Samples of Real Estate Market objects Real Estate objects: Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type 4 Price of Unit (eg price of commercial building) [? mln] 20 30 40 50 Rent income [%] (depended on Market stochastic expectations) #1-Optimistic 10 12 14 15 #2-Stable 10 10 10 10 #3-Pessimistic 10 8 6 5 Rent Income [? mln]: #1-Optimistic 2.0 3.6 5.6 7.5 #2-Stable 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 #3-Pessimistic 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.5


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Type 4 Type 3 Type 2 Type 1 Expected Rent Income for different Real Estate Types [1-4] and different Market situation Pessimistic Stable Optimistic Expected Rent Income [?mln] 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Possible non-linear one


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Pessimistic Stable Optimistic [?mln] Expected Rent Income for different Portfolios (of ?mln 100 each portfolio) 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 100=50+50 100=40+30+30 100= 20+20+20+20+20


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Possible Portfolios Expected Portfolio Rent Incomes 100 [? mln] for different Market situations Different #1-Optimistic #2-Stable #3-Pessimistic combinations from types {1-4} [? mln] [? mln] [? mln] 100 = 50+50 7.5+7.5 = 15 5+5 = 10 2.5+2.5 = 5 100 = 40+40+20 5.6+5.6+2=13.2 4+4+2=10 2.4+2.4+2=6.8 100 = 50+30+20 7.5+3.6+2=13.1 5+3+2=10 2.5+2.4+2=6.9 100 = 40+30+30 5.6+3.6+3.6=12.8 4+3+3=10 2.4+2.4+2.4=7.2 100 = 40+20+20+20 5.6+2+2+2=11.6 4+2+2+2=10 2.4+2+2+2=8.4 100 = 30+30+20+20 3.6+3.6+2+2=11.2 3+3+2+2=10 2.4+2.4+2+2=8.8 100 = 20+20+20+20+20 2+2+2+2+2= 10 2+2+2+2+2=10 2+2+2+2+2=10 Full list of Rent Incomes for ?mln100 Portfolio of different combinations


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Stochastic serial drawing for the Market situations: Stable / Optimistic / Pessimistic SAMPLE of Distribution: PROBABILITY CUBE {1-6}, e.g.: Pessimistic {1,2,3} 1/2 Stable {4} 1/6 Optimistic {5,6} 1/3 Future periods [t] 1 2 3 4 5 Pessim. Stable Optimist.


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Different Portfolios Summary Results Checking on the 5-year serial (Sample 1 – Negative tendency) ?100 mln Portfolios Rent Income (negative tendency) constructions T1pess. T2stab. T3pess. T4optim. T5pess. ? 50+50 2.5+2.5 5+5 2.5+2.5 7.5+7.5 2.5+2.5 40 40+30+30 7.2 10 7.2 12.8 7.2 44.4 20+20+20+20+20 10 10 10 10 10 50 Future periods [t] 1 2 3 4 5 Pessim. Stable Optimist.


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Different Portfolios Summary Results Checking on the 5-year serial (Sample 2 – Positive tendency) ?100 mln Portfolios Rent Income (positive tendency) constructions T1optim. T2stab. T3pess. T4optim. T5stab. ? 50+50 7.5+7.5 5+5 2.5+2.5 7.5+7.5 5+5 55 40+30+30 12.8 10 7.2 12.8 10 52.8 20+20+20+20+20 10 10 10 10 10 50 [mln ?] Future periods [t] 1 2 3 4 5 Pessim. Stable Optimist.


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Market long-time tendencies What does it mean? How is it simulated? Market tendencies are simulated by different distributions for optimistic and pessimistic sides of Cube {1,2,3,4,5,6}, e.g.: Positive tendency sample: Pessimistic sides {1,2} with a pessimistic probability = 1/3 Stable sides {3} with a stable probability = 1/6 Optimistic sides {4,5,6} with an optimistic probability = 1/2 Negative tendency sample: Pessimistic sides {1,2,3} with a pessimistic probability = 1/2 Stable sides {4} with a stable probability = 1/6 Optimistic sides {5,6} with an optimistic probability = 1/3 Market tendency is realized through multi-step drawing by Cube with defined positive or negative distribution. REMARK: Because of stochastic nature of drawing summary results can be different from claimed tendency (i.e. it is possible to have negative results for positive market tendency and vise versa)


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The Business Game Procedure (1) Start Conditions (1): Every team has ?100 mln in order to form portfolio Real Estate units’ costs and expected rent incomes – see lower* Rent income dependences on market stochastic situations (stable, pessimistic and optimistic) are defined through the 6-side Cube and fixed for the claimed market tendency – see lower* PART 1 There are no limits for any type of real estate objects Long-time market tendency (positive or negative) is claimed before than teams start to form their portfolios Investing teams form their portfolios according to their risk policy. They try to maximize summary rent income. Information about formed portfolios is gathered and shown on the general table. It is drawn a serial of market situations for claimed tendency: eg 5 or 10 drawings. Summary rent income is appraised for every team. The 3-4 serials are realized for training and risk policy checking. 5. Best sums define winners.


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Characteristics of Real Estate market objects Real Estate objects: Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type 4 Price of Unit (e.g. price of commercial building) [? mln] 20 30 40 50 Rent income [? mln] (depended on Market expectations) #1-Optimistic 2.0 3.6 5.6 7.5 #2-Stable 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 #3-Pessimistic 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.5


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