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The Modi Bounce
Bruce Stokes
Director, Global Economic Attitudes
Brookings Institution, September 25, 2015
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Pew Research Center
•
Established 1996
•
Funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts
•
Non-profit, non-partisan fact tank in Washington
•
Survey topics: U.S. domestic politics and economic conditions, values, U.S.
image abroad, global views toward major powers, terrorism, democracy,
country conditions, aging, economy
•
Since 2002, we have surveyed in 85 countries, surveying in 40 nations in
2015
•
www.pewresearch.org
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Methodology
• Surveys conducted in India from April 6 to May 19, 2015, totaling 2,452
respondents
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Based on nationally representative face-to-face interviews with adults 18
and older conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research
Associates International
•
The margin of sampling error for the complete set of weighted data is ±3.2%
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KEY TAKEAWAYS
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Since 2013, Spike in Indians’ Assessments of Both Their
Country Conditions and Their Leader
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Overwhelmingly Favorable View of BJP
Do you have a ___ opinion of …
Unfavorable
BJP
INC
AAP
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Favorable
87%
11%
35
61
58
28
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BJP Leads Congress in Both Urban and Rural Areas
Favorable views of …
BJP
%
INC
%
Diff
TOTAL
87
61
--
Urban
83
52
+31
Rural
89
64
+25
Narendra
Modi
%
Rahul
Gandhi
%
Diff
TOTAL
87
62
--
Urban
84
53
+31
Rural
89
66
+23
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THE MODI PHENOMENON
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Modi Most Favored, Rahul Gandhi Larger Increase in Support
Favorable views of …
2013
2015
%
%
Rahul Gandhi
50
62
+12
PM Narendra Modi
78
87
+9
Sonia Gandhi
49
58
+9
Arvind Kejriwal
--
60
--
Kiran Bedi
--
48
--
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Change
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Indians Pleased with Modi’s Handling of U.S.-India Relations
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Prime Minister Narendra Modi is handling relations with …
Disapprove
U.S.
Approve
66%
13%
China
30
Russia
29
Pakistan
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39
37
25
50
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Strong Approval of Modi’s Handling of a Range of Domestic Issues
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Prime Minister Narendra Modi is handling …
Disapprove Approve
Access to clean toilets
25%
71%
Unemployment
29
67
Terrorism
28
66
Helping the poor
Rising prices
Corruption
Communal relations
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63
32
63
35
61
33
53
35
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Majorities of Congress Supporters Approve of Modi on
Issues, Except Communal Relations
Approve of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s handling of …
Total
INC
BJP
%
%
%
Access to clean toilets
71
66
74
Unemployment
67
62
69
Helping the poor
63
61
67
Rising prices
63
61
65
Terrorism
66
56
71
Corruption
61
56
65
Communal relations
53
47
57
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A Modi Effect? Confidence in National Institutions Increases
Influence of __ is very good
Change
2014
2015
%
%
National gov’t
29
59
+30
Media
45
55
+10
Religious leaders
20
29
+9
Military
68
74
+6
Court system
31
37
+6
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INDIANS AND THE WORLD
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U.S. Seen Most Favorably, Pakistan Viewed Least Favorably
Indian views of …
Unfavorable
U.S.
Favorable
8%
Japan
16
Russia
70%
17
China
41
19
Iran
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43
32
South Korea
Pakistan
46
28
28
28
64
18
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Indians Overwhelmingly View U.S. as Economic Partner
Is it more important to have strong economic ties with China or the U.S.?
Both/
Neither (VOL)
China
14%
8%
U.S.
Don't know
63%
15%
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Climate Change Tops Indians’ Global Concerns
Very concerned about …
73%
Global climate change
Global economic instability
49
Cyberattacks
45
ISIS
41
Territorial disputes between China & its
neighbors
38
Tensions between Russia & its neighbors
30
28
Iran's nuclear program
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Pakistan Seen as India’s Biggest Threat
How serious of a threat is ___ to India?
Very serious
Pakistan
74%
Naxalites
65
Lashkar-e-Taiba
China
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Total
Somewhat serious
61
42
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25
17
13
12%
86%
82
74
67
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All Pew Research Center reports and data are
available online at www.pewresearch.org
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