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The Modi Phenomenon

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The Modi Bounce Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes Brookings Institution, September 25, 2015


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Pew Research Center • Established 1996 • Funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts • Non-profit, non-partisan fact tank in Washington • Survey topics: U.S. domestic politics and economic conditions, values, U.S. image abroad, global views toward major powers, terrorism, democracy, country conditions, aging, economy • Since 2002, we have surveyed in 85 countries, surveying in 40 nations in 2015 • www.pewresearch.org September 28, 2015 www.pewresearch.org 2


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Methodology • Surveys conducted in India from April 6 to May 19, 2015, totaling 2,452 respondents • Based on nationally representative face-to-face interviews with adults 18 and older conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International • The margin of sampling error for the complete set of weighted data is ±3.2% September 28, 2015 www.pewresearch.org 3


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KEY TAKEAWAYS September 28, 2015 www.pewresearch.org 4


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Since 2013, Spike in Indians’ Assessments of Both Their Country Conditions and Their Leader September 28, 2015 www.pewresearch.org 5


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Overwhelmingly Favorable View of BJP Do you have a ___ opinion of … Unfavorable BJP INC AAP September 28, 2015 Favorable 87% 11% 35 61 58 28 www.pewresearch.org 6


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BJP Leads Congress in Both Urban and Rural Areas Favorable views of … BJP % INC % Diff TOTAL 87 61 -- Urban 83 52 +31 Rural 89 64 +25 Narendra Modi % Rahul Gandhi % Diff TOTAL 87 62 -- Urban 84 53 +31 Rural 89 66 +23 September 28, 2015 www.pewresearch.org 7


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THE MODI PHENOMENON September 28, 2015 www.pewresearch.org 8


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Modi Most Favored, Rahul Gandhi Larger Increase in Support Favorable views of … 2013 2015 % % Rahul Gandhi 50 62 +12 PM Narendra Modi 78 87 +9 Sonia Gandhi 49 58 +9 Arvind Kejriwal -- 60 -- Kiran Bedi -- 48 -- September 28, 2015 www.pewresearch.org Change 9


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Indians Pleased with Modi’s Handling of U.S.-India Relations Do you approve or disapprove of the way Prime Minister Narendra Modi is handling relations with … Disapprove U.S. Approve 66% 13% China 30 Russia 29 Pakistan September 28, 2015 39 37 25 50 www.pewresearch.org 10


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Strong Approval of Modi’s Handling of a Range of Domestic Issues Do you approve or disapprove of the way Prime Minister Narendra Modi is handling … Disapprove Approve Access to clean toilets 25% 71% Unemployment 29 67 Terrorism 28 66 Helping the poor Rising prices Corruption Communal relations September 28, 2015 63 32 63 35 61 33 53 35 www.pewresearch.org 11


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Majorities of Congress Supporters Approve of Modi on Issues, Except Communal Relations Approve of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s handling of … Total INC BJP % % % Access to clean toilets 71 66 74 Unemployment 67 62 69 Helping the poor 63 61 67 Rising prices 63 61 65 Terrorism 66 56 71 Corruption 61 56 65 Communal relations 53 47 57 September 28, 2015 www.pewresearch.org 12


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A Modi Effect? Confidence in National Institutions Increases Influence of __ is very good Change 2014 2015 % % National gov’t 29 59 +30 Media 45 55 +10 Religious leaders 20 29 +9 Military 68 74 +6 Court system 31 37 +6 September 28, 2015 www.pewresearch.org 13


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INDIANS AND THE WORLD September 28, 2015 www.pewresearch.org 14


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U.S. Seen Most Favorably, Pakistan Viewed Least Favorably Indian views of … Unfavorable U.S. Favorable 8% Japan 16 Russia 70% 17 China 41 19 Iran September 28, 2015 43 32 South Korea Pakistan 46 28 28 28 64 18 www.pewresearch.org 15


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Indians Overwhelmingly View U.S. as Economic Partner Is it more important to have strong economic ties with China or the U.S.? Both/ Neither (VOL) China 14% 8% U.S. Don't know 63% 15% September 28, 2015 www.pewresearch.org 16


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Climate Change Tops Indians’ Global Concerns Very concerned about … 73% Global climate change Global economic instability 49 Cyberattacks 45 ISIS 41 Territorial disputes between China & its neighbors 38 Tensions between Russia & its neighbors 30 28 Iran's nuclear program September 28, 2015 www.pewresearch.org 17


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Pakistan Seen as India’s Biggest Threat How serious of a threat is ___ to India? Very serious Pakistan 74% Naxalites 65 Lashkar-e-Taiba China September 28, 2015 Total Somewhat serious 61 42 www.pewresearch.org 25 17 13 12% 86% 82 74 67 18


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All Pew Research Center reports and data are available online at www.pewresearch.org September 28, 2015 www.pewresearch.org 19


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