Key Trends in Social Media for 2015 by Marshall Manson & James Whatley @marshallmanson @whatleydude marshall.manson@ogilvy.com james.whatley@ogilvy.com

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Key Trends in Social Media for 2015 by Marshall Manson & James Whatley @marshallmanson @whatleydude marshall.manson@ogilvy.com james.whatley@ogilvy.com

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At the close of 2013, Marshall Manson, managing director of Social@Ogilvy EMEA, and James Whatley, social media director of Ogilvy & Mather Advertising London, put their heads together and came up with their 2014 trend predictions for the year ahead. This document outlines a brief review of those ideas as well as a more in-depth look at the thoughts, trends and predictions for next year, 2015.

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2014: Trend Review Disposable Content Last year, inline with millennial interest in keeping as much control over their anonymity as they do their content, disposable content became an actual thing. Here’s the proof: According to Global Web Index, Snapchat was the fastest growing social network of 2014. Not bad at all. Stealing with pride, many copycat apps sprang up and are trying to emulate said success. Slingshot, WindUp, and Bolt to name but three. Dizzee Rascal, with his Halloween hit ‘Couple of Stacks’, delivered a music video for the Snapchat generation by giving it a time limit and, by the time November rolled around, it was deleted again. Amazing.

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2014: Trend Review Brand Banter The kids are cool, didn’t you hear? And like dads dancing at a disco, many brands tried to be cool too. Tesco Mobile picked up several awards for its ‘#nojoke’ ‘campaign’ – winning all the way to the banter bank* From Royal Babies to celebrity backsides, ‘owning the moment’ became the latest fad to fellate the never-ending content calendars of 2014. ‘Brandter’ indeed. *- Bankter? No, just stop...

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2014: Trend Review Sub-dividing Communities When Marshall came up with this bad boy towards the end of last year, we all thought he was nuts. But with the advent of hyper-targeting on Facebook, the smartest brands of 2014 really took this to the next level. Our favourite example: Did you know that for the 2014 Superbowl, Coca-cola made 12 different cuts of its ‘America is Beautiful’ ad and targeted across the many cultures, races, and creeds that live therein? Incredible.

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2014: Trend Review Facebook as a paid media channel Nailed it.

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2015 Trends Let’s get to the good stuff…

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Trend 1: Twitter Zero

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Background: 2014 gave us Facebook Zero

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Background: 2015 will bring us more And now Twitter have stated very publicly that they will indeed, eventually, head down the very same path…

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Defining ‘Twitter Zero’

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Twitter’s user numbers have hit a plateau, yet the volume of content published to Twitter continues to accelerate. To combat this growth inertia, Twitter is searching for fresh ways to attract new users, make its onboarding experience for new users easier to understand, and do a better job of serving relevant content to its existing users. And fundamentally, Twitter needs to keep making money. Defining Twitter Zero

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In 2015, like Facebook before it, Twitter is sure to embrace algorithmic content serving, and move away from its traditional reverse chronological format. The implication for brands is clear: Organic reach will approach zero, and there will be greater pressure to deploy Twitter’s suite of paid products in support of branded content. Defining Twitter Zero

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How do you prepare for this?

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Preparing for Twitter Zero: Focus on Performance Build Communities of Fans Organic Reach Fuels WOM / Earned Old New Test with Organic (while it lasts) Use Paid to Fuel WOM / Earned Organic reach and building Likes should be filed away with 2014’s taxes. For 2015 test with what works with your audience first then boost with paid to work your best performing content harder.

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v There is a WEALTH of targeting options across the major platforms rooted in audience’s social behaviours. Delivering editorial content via sophisticated targeting can deliver massive performance benefits. Preparing for Twitter Zero: Win with Targeting

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Embrace Twitter Cards Twitter Cards not only a provide way to stand out in the feed but also pave the way for a more commercial approach to content delivery.

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Embrace Twitter Cards As you read this, Integrated e-Commerce is being beta tested in the US. If you sell direct to your consumer, then this should be on your radar right now.

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Don’t forget Facebook: you can do a little with a lot A lot of SMEs we speak to are concerned that they’re going to be priced out of social by the demise of organic reach. But you might be surprised with what you can achieve; we recommend experimenting with small amounts and seeing what works. The below chart demonstrates a reach of over 100,000 Facebook users with only a ?300 spend We’re able to reach over 100k Facebook users with a Facebook paid media spend of only ?300.

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When we say Editorial we mean: Timely and relevant It’s good to have marketing that doesn’t look like marketing Facebook have said that posts that look like ads will be downgraded in its algorithm Think about the value exchange But keep it editorial

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And remember! Social is more than Facebook & Twitter, it shouldn’t matter what channel you use, the important thing is ensuring that you always think about your BUSINESS OBJECTIVE

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Trend 2: The Battle Royale for Video Dominance Facebook vs. YouTube vs. Twitter

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May 2014: Facebook tweaked its algorithm to significantly increase the volume of video appearing in users’ newsfeeds. Then a Buzzfeed partnership combined with a certain Ice Bucket Challenge massively increased awareness and usage of native Facebook video. Finally Zuckerberg declared video “A big priority” as recently as Facebook’s Q3’s earnings call. That time Facebook punched YouTube on the nose…

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…then stole its girlfriend.

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This metric is crazy: in 2014 Facebook video matched YouTube for views (again, we’d say that Ice Bucket Challenge helped a lot here)

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Facebook: Better Within Facebook Data from ad parlor showed that Facebook native delivered: 2.5x higher CTR 10% lower cost per engagement 3.5x lower CPC 5.5x lower cost per video play Marketers are responding. As of November 2014, marketers are now choosing to go native with Facebook video instead of embedding from YouTube (see chart above) According to Social Bakers, videos published natively to Facebook delivered 40% better engagement rates than YouTube videos embedded into Facebook.

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Facebook: stronger for engagement & sharing Even comparing native performance in Facebook to native performance in YouTube, early evidence suggests that Facebook delivers significantly better engagement. The recent John Lewis Christmas ad delivered 0.8% engagement in YouTube (from 18.5m views at the time of writing), while Facebook delivered 5.2% engagement (from 6.2m views). That’s a 550% improvement. And Facebook drove 160% more shares (159,000) than YouTube (61,000) from a third of the views. Put another way, when it came to Monty the Penguin, Facebook video accounted for 72% of the shares from only 25% of the views.

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Bifurcating and Trifurcating Facebook’s user share for video is increasing. Other platforms working to follow. And (Facebook-owned) Instagram is increasingly first port of call for users, particularly Millennials, to publish short videos created on mobile. The successful roll out of Hyperlapse is enhancing Instagram’s position, too. Twitter’s move to present [promoted] video directly in-feed via cards makes it an increasingly relevant player as well, building on Vine’s solid foundation of success. Source: Comscore

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The Problem of Autoplay Source: Comscore Facebook’s decision to autoplay videos on desktop and mobile without sound artificially inflates view counts. It’s also resulting in extremely poor completion rates for video advertising distributed on the platform (one commentator cited a 25% completion rate for Facebook, compared to a typical 80% rate in YouTube). We’d say it’s a fairly safe bet this is so low due to the scrolling screens that whizz by auto-play videos. Not ideal.

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Defining ‘The Video Royale’

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It is a fact that Facebook has disrupted YouTube’s position as the default choice for publishing and distributing video content. Going forward, marketers will need to publish video content natively to both Facebook and YouTube, and support distribution paid in each platform. Twitter and Instagram will also become increasingly more relevant as they both make their own bets on video content as ad products. See: Twitter’s existing (and evolving) video ad proposition. Prediction: Instagram ad proposition will evolve and include the introduction of video approximately the middle of next year. Liverail Importance of auto play The Battle for Video Dominance

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Facebook recently ended its partnership with Bing and, in doing so, has intimated that it might be, finally, taking search seriously. Facebook has also added view counts to its videos; the creatives currently enjoying several millions of views on YouTube will need a number for their CVs – this stuff matters (to them). It should not be underestimated how significant this really is. In 2015 Facebook will get serious on copyright infringement and then, once that’s tidied away, consider revenue sharing for its best content creators. Get those right, and Facebook could be the next YouTube…. The ever improving video platform that is Facebook

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How do you prepare for this?

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If you haven’t already, get used to publishing your videos across Facebook and YouTube. We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: take the necessary steps to support consumption and engagement with paid media. Embrace Native Video Publishing

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As more brands publish native Facebook video, the data will teach us more about user preferences and behaviour. User behaviour will keep evolving as well. Be ready to product variations of your video content, optimised for each platform. Watch the Data. Get Ready to Optimise For example, Facebook users may demonstrate a preference for shorter, more shareable content.

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Trend 3: Youth in the Digital Age

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We know this isn’t a trend. But seriously, kids are using the Internet and the behaviours demonstrated by the different generations are only now spilling out into solid research. KIDS ARE USING THE INTERNET!!!

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One thing we will say however… 2015 will see continual growth in young people using anonymity-friendly platforms. Having a cast iron ‘real name’ identity simply isn’t attractive for people who haven’t worked out who they are yet.

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- James Whatley, March 2014 “ ” We've been talking about Tumblr usage being high amongst teens due to struggling with / still exploring their self-identity. Having several Instagram accounts and email accounts is considered the norm when your self is so fluid and still growing. When you're old enough to have sex, to drive, buy cigarettes and alcohol, vote... sociological norms define that you must be identifiable. This is a stretch, and possibly the broadest sweeping statement I've made this year but, Facebook [and Google+] work within and around those social norms. When teens 'graduate' in adulthood, they'll 'need' consistent online profiles; at an absolute minimum, a LinkedIn account. The Tumblrs, Whatsapps, and Snapchats of this world (anonymous expression of self, closed social networks, and ephemeral content respectively) work for the still-developing personalities more/better than others. That's not to say they'll stop, just that they may not remain there exclusively once maturity sets in.

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Random stuff we haven’t figured out yet…

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Digital is an Extension of Identity? “WE ARE WHAT WE SHARE”

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Luxury Brand Identification as an extension of their storytelling? “WE SHARE WHAT WE WANNA BE”

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Thank you Marshall Manson marshall.manson@ogilvy.com mobile +44 7879 890 000 @marshallmanson James Whatley james.whatley@ogilvy.com mobile +44 7774 898 681 @whatleydude