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Key Digital Trends for 2016

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Key Digital Trends for 2016 By Marshall Manson & James Whatley @marshallmanson / @whatleydude An Ogilvy Public Relations and Ogilvy & Mather Advertising collaboration


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Introduction ! ! Over the past few years, two of our Social@Ogilvy global leaders, Marshall Manson and James Whatley, have collaborated on a yearly trend report outlining both where they believe the market is headed and what brands and agency partners should do about it.!  ! This document, their third one in this series, is made up of two parts: first, a review and assessment of the 2015 predictions from the previous outlook followed by a look ahead to what the future holds for us all in 2016. ! ! Amusingly, both Marshall and James failed to predict their mutual promotions in 2015. Marshall to CEO of Ogilvy PR London, and James to Digital Director of Ogilvy & Mather Advertising London. ! ! Congrats guys. !


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Part 1: 2015 Trend Review ‘Did those two actually get anything right last time?’


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2015 Trend 1: Twitter Zero ! ! ! ! Last year we said: !


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2015 Trend 1: Twitter Zero ! Last year we said: ! ! ! ! Source: https://social.ogilvy.com/key-trends-in-social-media-for-2015/!


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2015 Trend 1: Twitter Zero ! Last year we said: ! ! ! ! Source: https://social.ogilvy.com/key-trends-in-social-media-for-2015/!


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2015 Trend 1: Twitter Zero ! ! ! ! This year we saw:!


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2015 Trend 1: Twitter Zero ! This year we saw:! ! ! ! Source: https://investor.twitterinc.com/results.cfm!


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2015 Trend 1: Twitter Zero ! This year we saw:! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! No new U.S. ! ! users in 2015! ! ! ! ! ! Source: https://investor.twitterinc.com/results.cfm!


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2015 Trend 1: Twitter Zero ! As well as…! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Source: https://blog.twitter.com/2015/highlighting-the-best-of-twitter-for-you! !


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2015 Trend 1: Twitter Zero ! As well as…! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Twitter launched ! ! ! ! ‘While you were away…’! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Source: http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/jan/01/twitter-while-you-were-away-recap-feature! !


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2015 Trend 1: Twitter Zero ! As well as…! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Source: https://blog.twitter.com/2015/moments-the-best-of-twitter-in-an-instant-0!


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2015 Trend 1: Twitter Zero ! As well as…! ! ! ! ! ! Hello,! ! Algorithmic Content ! Serving! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Source: https://blog.twitter.com/2015/moments-the-best-of-twitter-in-an-instant-0!


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2015 Trend 1: Twitter Zero ! As well as…! ! ! ! ! ! Hello, Promoted ! Algorithmic Content ! Serving for brands! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Source: https://blog.twitter.com/2015/moments-the-best-of-twitter-in-an-instant-0!


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2015 Trend 1: Twitter Zero ! As well as…! ! ! ! ! Hello, Promoted ! Algorithmic Content ! Serving for brands! ! ! ! (but don’t get your ! ! hopes up quite yet)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Source: https://blog.twitter.com/2015/moments-the-best-of-twitter-in-an-instant-0!


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2015 Trend 1: Twitter Zero ! One more thing! ! ! Fresh in as we were going to press.! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Source: http://motherboard.vice.com/read/twitter-is-testing-timelines-that-arent-in-chronological-order?utm_source=mbtwitter!


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2015 Trend 1: Twitter Zero ! One more thing! ! ! More algorithmic testing…! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Source: http://motherboard.vice.com/read/twitter-is-testing-timelines-that-arent-in-chronological-order?utm_source=mbtwitter!


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2015 Trend 1: Twitter Zero ! One more thing! ! ! …confirmed by Twitter itself.! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Source: http://motherboard.vice.com/read/twitter-is-testing-timelines-that-arent-in-chronological-order?utm_source=mbtwitter!


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2015 Trend 1: Twitter Zero ! One more thing! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! The times they are a changin’ ! ! ! ! ! Source: http://motherboard.vice.com/read/twitter-is-testing-timelines-that-arent-in-chronological-order?utm_source=mbtwitter!


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2015 Trend 2: The Video Royale ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Last year we said: !


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2015 Trend 2: The Video Royale ! Last year we said: ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Source: https://social.ogilvy.com/key-trends-in-social-media-for-2015/!


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2015 Trend 2: The Video Royale ! Last year we said: ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Source: https://social.ogilvy.com/key-trends-in-social-media-for-2015/!


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2015 Trend 2: The Video Royale ! This year we saw: ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Source: http://www.adweek.com/news/technology/twitter-unleashes-autoplay-video-ads-100-viewability-promise-165366!


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2015 Trend 2: The Video Royale ! This year we saw: ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Source: http://www.theverge.com/tech/2015/7/22/9015495/facebook-youtube-video-tools-publishers!


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2015 Trend 2: The Video Royale ! This year we saw: ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Source: http://www.adweek.com/news/technology/instagram-debuts-30-second-video-ads-its-latest-pitch-big-brands-166767!


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2015 Trend 2: The Video Royale ! This year we saw: ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Source: https://medium.com/@hankgreen/theft-lies-and-facebook-video-656b0ffed369!


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2015 Trend 2: The Video Royale ! This year we saw: ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Source: https://medium.com/@hankgreen/theft-lies-and-facebook-video-656b0ffed369!


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2015 Trend 2: The Video Royale ! This year we saw: ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Source: http://uk.businessinsider.com/facebook-copyright-infringement-facebook-content-id-celebrities-2015-5 !


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2015 Trend 2: The Video Royale ! This year we saw: ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Source: http://www.theverge.com/2015/2/27/8124955/power-rangers-short-goes-back-online!


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2015 Trend 2: The Video Royale ! This year we saw: ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Source: http://www.theverge.com/2015/2/27/8124955/power-rangers-short-goes-back-online!


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2015 Trend 3: Youth in the Digital Age ! ! ! ! Last year we said: !


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2015 Trend 3: Youth in the Digital Age ! Last year we said: ! ! ! ! Source: https://social.ogilvy.com/key-trends-in-social-media-for-2015/!


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2015 Trend 3: Youth in the Digital Age ! Last year we said: ! ! ! ! Source: https://social.ogilvy.com/key-trends-in-social-media-for-2015/!


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2015 Trend 3: Youth in the Digital Age ! This year we saw: ! ! ! ! Source: http://techcrunch.com/2015/11/09/snapchat-reaches-6-billion-daily-videos-views-tripling-from-2-billion-in-may/!


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2015 Trend 3: Youth in the Digital Age ! This year we saw: ! ! ! ! Source: http://www.statsy.co/charts/4!


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Part 2: 2016 Trend Predictions ‘How will the plebs be using social in the future, Daddy?’


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2016 Trend 1: The Ad Blocker End Game ‘Don’t call it the Adblockalypse’


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Background


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Ad Blocking: To Infinity and Beyond Ad blocker usage is exploding. ! Up a huge 44% from Q2 2014 to the same period, 2015! ! +48% yoy in the U.S. and +35% yoy across Europe (with Germany leading the way globally)! ! Mostly driven both by public mindshare of Adblockers generally as well as the rising market share of Chrome for PC.! ! ! ! (oh, and these measurements were taken before Apple rolled out ad blocking in iOS9)! Source: https://blog.pagefair.com/2015/ad-blocking-report/ !


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The kids are OWNING this And not just because they’re more comfortable with the tech. They are also more protective of their privacy and much more sensitive to ‘ad bloat’ and the subsequent impact on load speeds. ! ! ‘Our time is precious – don’t you dare waste it!’ ! Source: http://sourcepoint.com/comscore-and-sourcepoint-the-state-of-ad-blocking/!


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And… wait for it… here comes Apple. Rolling out towards the end of 2015, iOS9 included support for ad blockers for the first time. ! ! Several ad blocking apps immediately rose to the top download spot in the App Store.! Android has had ad blocker support via specific browser apps (but crucially unavailable in Chrome – the OS default). ! ! We expect this last part to change… !


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‘Get out of the way; get out of my life!’ We spoke before about how the primary drivers are user desire for greater privacy control and improved speed and efficiency.! Users increasingly aware of page load bloat driven by publishers using a range of ad serving platforms. ! ! And as our screen sizes have shrunk – this problem is only exacerbated further. ! ! Individual web pages are now averaging more than 2mb. And since 2013 load times have slowed by more than 20%.! ! Source: http://marketingland.com/heres-a-briefer-about-the-top-ad-blockers-146686 !


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Now it’s time for the ecosystem owners step in… Building on the success of apps like Flipboard, Apple and Facebook have both rolled out content aggregation platforms designed to maximise publishers’ reach while minimising disruption by advertising. ! Facebook’s ‘Instant Articles’ has launched on iOS and Android. With Facebook Notify following shortly after… and Snapchat Stories and, and, and…! Apple News launched with iOS9 with users selecting preferred publishers or topics which are then algorithmically optimised based on users’ consumption behaviour.! Crucially: the ad experience is explicitly minimised.!


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…and Network owners too In the UK, leading mobile networks EE and O2 have announced that they are exploring network-level ad blocking.! And, if successful, others, both locally and globally, are sure to follow.! The implication is clear: ! ! Mobile advertising is set to be increasingly controlled and managed/blocked at every possible point of intervention.! ! The user (read: money) comes first.!


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Defining the Ad Blocker End Game


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Defining The Ad Blocker End Game The rise of ad blockers imperils traditional models of digital marketing. Users are consuming fewer banner ads. That decline is likely soon to reach levels that severely disrupt publishers’ existing advertising revenue models. ! ! At this rate, the business model for content marketing platforms (such as Outbrain) could very well be in danger. ! ! Meanwhile, ecosystem owners’ efforts to aggregate content and shape delivery to the end user only threaten to further reduce available online advertising space and, by extension, effectiveness. !


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How Do You Prepare for This?


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Social Media Has Moved On Microtargeting! Community! Building & Management! Digital Influence! 2003-2008! 2008-2014! 2014-????!


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Focus on focused earned – aka: microtargeting content To succeed, brands have to be present in consumers’ feeds. ! ! That’s not merely a Facebook, Twitter, or Apple News feed. It means earning attention space and scale wherever audience members choose to consume information. ! ! So content must be created and tuned against specific audience interests, preferences or affiliations. We call this microtargeting, not because the audiences are small, but because the interests are as focused as possible.! ! Focusing on this type of earned also puts a premium on sharing and, by extension, word of mouth, recommendations, and advocacy. ! ! When marketing efforts focus on the point of conversion, brands must pair content with consumer intent, and deliver stories with purpose.!


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Applying new principles for content success Facebook Focus! Multi-Platform! Community = Audience! Multi-Audience! Always-On! Selective, Timely, Relevant! Test and Boost! Driven by Audience Behaviour and Preference! Brand Led Content! Balance of Brand Led and Audience Led Content! Content Optimised for ! “Earned” / Sharing! Content Optimised for ! “Earned” / Sharing!


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Trend 2: The Video R Evolution ‘Video is going to be massive next year’ – everybody, ever.


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Background


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Background: The Video Royale rages on… Trends don’t come and go with the seasons. ! ! The Video Royale mega-battle will continue.! ! What’s more: freebooting is not going away. ! ! !Eg: in May 2015, an Ogilvy report found that 725 of the top 1000 Facebook videos were ‘ripped’ !from YouTube and accounted for over 52.2m views in just 30 days. ! !! !Combine that with more and more platforms launched their own video propositions – you can literally find the same content by the same creators, everywhere. ! Source: http://www.slideshare.net/socialogilvy/the-rise-of-multiplatform-video-why-brands-need-a-multiplatform-video-strategy!


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…which can and will only drive innovation In a land grab for creating the best and most innovative original content, the two big guns have rolled out 360 video views. ! ! Facebook launched its offering back in September with a STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS tie-up. ! ! The experience allowed users to look around a the Jakku desert from inside a fast-moving speeder, passing crashed Empire ships and observing passers-by – and all from the comfort of your mobile phone. ! ! ! This example put 360 video viewing on the map in a BIG way.! Source: https://www.facebook.com/StarWars/videos/1030579940326940/!


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…which can and will only drive innovation But did you know that YouTube got there first? ! ! Launching way back in March 2015 and available on the most recent YouTube app update across iOS and Android, YouTube 360 is available to all – and shares exactly the same kind of interactive experience as the Facebook one we’ve just discussed. ! ! Android users even get a ‘Cardboard this’ button baked into the UI – allowing users to drop the video into their Google Cardboard VR unit and watch it that way instead. ! ! Incredible. ! Source: https://www.facebook.com/StarWars/videos/1030579940326940/!


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Defining ‘The Video Evolution’


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Defining The Video Evolution Portrait video screening – or ‘edge to edge’ viewing – is making a comeback (you can thank/blame Snapchat for that).! ! The proliferation and democratisation of everything from drone technology, to 360 camera rigs, VR headsets and more – will shape the evolution of video content as we know it. ! ! In 2016, the way we not only consume but also create video content is set to change forever. ! ! ! In some instances it already has. ! ture of The fu already ideo is v ’s just here, it evenly t very no uted... distrib


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How Do You Prepare for This?


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There are two things you can do… 1: DON’T PANIC! ! Between Sony’s PlayStationVR, HTC’s Valve, Facebook’s Oculus Rift, Microsoft’s Hololens, Samsung’s Gear VR, Google’s Cardboard and maybe even Google Glass 2.0…! ! It is unquestionable that 2016 WILL be the year of VR. ! ! But crucially, it will be the year of VR 1.0.! ! And that’s really not something you should be worried about…! ! More: http://www.wareable.com/headgear/the-best-ar-and-vr-headsets!


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There are two things you can do… 2: GO FOR THE EARLY PR VALUE ! ! If you’re a large media owner or client you should speak to your agency or your platform representative to explore what 360 video options are available to you. ! ! 360 rigs aren’t that expensive - you could buy the cameras separately and 3D print the kit you need – seriously!! ! Check out the GoPro / YouTube partnership – aka ‘Jump’ for inspiration. Or download the Google Cardboard photography app for Android and see what’s possible. ! ! ! Source: https://www.google.co.uk/get/cardboard/jump/!


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Trend 3: Gen Z Yes, we’re going there…


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Background: we are hitting PEAK MILLENNIAL Source: https://www.google.co.uk/trends/explore#q=millennials!


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Client or agency: do you even know what you’re asking for? How many briefs have you written / presented / given / received that, when you’ve got to the section about ‘Who are we trying to reach?’ you’ve simply seen ‘Millennials’?! ! Be honest – how many? ! ! ‘Millennial’ is not only a cheap, lazy, and boring way to describe a homogenous group of around 80 million people globally (seriously – they can’t ALL be into the same things), but it’s also often predicated by a vast misunderstanding of exactly how old this group actually is.! ! ! ! ! So let’s be clear - !


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Defining ‘Gen Z’


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Defining Gen Z Born after 1995. ! ! Specifically not a Millennial. ! ! Or a sheep. ! ! Or yet another cast group of people you can throw together as one marketing cohort. ! ! If you’re reading this and you were born during or after 1996 – congratulations! You’re Gen Z! ! ! ! Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/20/fashion/move-over-millennials-here-comes-generation-z.html!


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Defining Gen Z But if we’re going to insist at least giving them some labels. Gen Z are: ! ! -  -  -  -  -  -  -  Growing up with uncertainty! More socially aware than ever! Finding new causes to fight for! In the habit of hacking systems! Not conforming to subcultures! Rejecting traditional routes! Not standing for ignorance! ! ! ! In short: they’re staring at an uncertain world and want to make a difference in their own terms. !


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How Do You Prepare for This?


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Stop homogenising One brand new cohort does not a new and exciting brand audience make. Neither does an age range. Find a consumer truth, an insight, and blow that out into audience research and consumer marketing. ! ! Saying ‘Millennial’ or ‘Gen z’ just won’t cut it. ! ! If you get (or write) a brief saying ‘We want to speak to Gen Z’ – push back, hard, and find out what the consumer truth or insight is that makes this ‘audience’ relevant to you.! ! Yes this is an audience that is different – so very different – to the [millennial] group before it but by its own definition, they will not stand to be bundled together and forcefed bland marketing messages ‘built for Gen Z’.! ! Consider it a call to arms, if you will. !


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And we’re done! Well, kinda…


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Three bonus noodles. Something to think about…


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Bonus I: Distributed Content ‘Your content, it’s everywhere…’


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Content marketers have a lot to learn (from Buzzfeed) Marketers are obsessed with content but oddly only measure effectiveness by website statistics.! ! Yet when it comes to [arguably one the world’s best content marketer] Buzzfeed, of the 18.5b impressions it receives every month only 2% of those are on its website. ! ! The content publishers of this world are no longer focusing on publishing links back to their homepages. ! ! Is web traffic over? Probably not. But the days of linking every single piece of content back to your website are coming to an end. ! ! Think on that for a while. ! http://www.stickycontent.com/blog/content-culture-in-the-uk-sticky-content-survey-results! http://recode.net/2015/10/26/for-buzzfeed-five-billion-views-are-worth-more-than-18-billion-impressions/!


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Bonus II: Twitter Erosion We want to be wrong on this.


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Twitter usage is declining (probably) We don’t have quite enough data to be categorical, so we’re admitting that we might be wrong, BUT what we can see suggests the following:! ! •  According to Twitter’s own measurement: Daily Active User (DAU) and Monthly Active User (MAU) growth has plateaued. ! •  One thing Twitter doesn’t report is average daily frequency. That is, the number of times per day that a user accesses the platform – and we suspect that it’s declining. Precipitously. ! •  Anecdotally, in Twitter’s heyday, core users were on the platform constantly. Casual users checked things out a few times a day. But these days, our observations suggest users are accessing the platform only once or twice a day. ! If this were true, the DAU and MAU would remain roughly stable, while the number of impressions delivered per post would decline. ! ! – and that’s exactly what we believe is happening.!


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And Facebook is attacking its Customer Service Value Additionally, Facebook is aggressively pushing its Messenger platform as an effective forum for 1-2-1 customer service interactions. ! ! Early reports are positive. ! ! Of course, Twitter is the go-to platform for customers to escalate complaints, but what if Facebook undermines this positioning over time?! ! Twitter’s place in the social media landscape could begin to erode very quickly indeed… !


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Bonus III: Influencer as Media Outlet Nathan Barley* would be proud. *Google him, you’ll see.


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Spot talent, buy talent. We’ve seen some of this already but…! ! •  Connecting brands with content talent ranging from YouTubers to Instagrammers is the new agency oil – and middle man agencies are popping up all over the place. ! ! ! ! •  From the well established (and now Disney-owned) Maker Studios to newly minted The & Collective from WPP, content talent agencies are appearing all over the place and while this isn’t new news – expect this to be a fully-fledged and perhaps highly lucrative part of the marcomms industry come the New Year. !


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And that’s a wrap!


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Thank you. ! Thank you so much for reading and (we hope) enjoying. Please do share this along and, if you have any questions, comments, builds, or even vehement disagreements then please do not hesitate to get in touch – we’d love to hear from you. ! ! Marshall Manson ! @marshallmanson! marshall.manson@ogilvy.com! ! ! ! ! ! James Whatley! @whatleydude! james.whatley@ogilvy.com !


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