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Perils of Perception A FOURTEEN COUNTRY STUDY

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Perils of Perception A FOURTEEN COUNTRY STUDY


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These are the findings from our 14 country study looking at how accurate – or inaccurate – people are when asked to estimate basic facts about their population or social issues. It shows how wrong we often are: Perceptions are not reality…


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IN YOUR OPINION WHAT PERCENTAGE OF GIRLS AGED BETWEEN 15 AND 19 GIVE BIRTH EACH YEAR?


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% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH Q. In your opinion what percentage of girls aged between 15 and 19 give birth each year? People across the world hugely overestimate the proportion of teenagers who give birth each year.


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Average guess % % Girls aged between 16 and 19 years that give birth each year People across the world hugely overestimate the proportion of teenagers who give birth each year. The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low Q. In your opinion what percentage of girls aged between 15 and 19 give birth each year?


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WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION DO YOU THINK ARE IMMIGRANTS TO THIS COUNTRY?


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% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH Q. What percentage of the population do you think are immigrants to this country? All countries overestimate their level of immigration


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Average guess % % Immigrants to this country Q. What percentage of the population do you think are immigrants to this country? All countries overestimate their level of immigration The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low


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OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE MUSLIM?


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TOO HIGH % POINT DIFFERENCE Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are Muslim? People in a number of countries massively overestimate the proportion of Muslims


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Average guess % % Muslims Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are Muslim? People in a number of countries massively overestimate the proportion of Muslims The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low


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National Perceptions OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE CHRISTIAN?


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% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO LOW TOO HIGH Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are Christian? In contrast to the Muslim question, majority-Christian countries tend to underestimate how many people count themselves as Christian.


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Average guess % % Christians Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are Christian? In contrast to the Muslim question, majority-Christian countries tend to underestimate how many people count themselves as Christian. The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low


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National Perceptions OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE OVER 65?


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% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are over 65? All countries hugely overestimate the proportion of their population aged 65+


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Average guess % % Over 65 Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are over 65? All countries hugely overestimate the proportion of their population aged 65+ The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low


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National Perceptions OUT OF EVERY 100 ELIGIBLE VOTERS ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK VOTED IN THE LAST ELECTION?


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% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO LOW Q. Out of every 100 eligible voters how many do you think voted in the last election? All countries underestimate the proportion of the population that voted in the last major national election


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Average guess % % Voted in last election Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Q. Out of every 100 eligible voters how many do you think voted in the last election? All countries underestimate the proportion of the population that voted in the last major national election The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low


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National Perceptions OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE UNEMPLOYED AND LOOKING FOR WORK?


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% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH Q. Out of every 100 people of working age about how many do you think are unemployed and looking for work? Unemployment levels are hugely overestimated in every country


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Average guess % % Unemployed and looking for work Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Q. Out of every 100 people of working age about how many do you think are unemployed and looking for work? Unemployment levels are hugely overestimated in every country The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low


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National Perceptions WHAT DO YOU THINK THE LIFE EXPECTANCY WILL BE OF A CHILD BORN IN 2014?


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Q. What do you think the life expectancy will be of a child born in 2014? TOO LOW TOO HIGH DIFFERENCE IN YEARS People in most countries have a fairly accurate picture of life expectancy


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Average guess % Average life expectancy Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Q. What do you think the life expectancy will be of a child born in 2014? People in most countries have a fairly accurate picture of life expectancy The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low


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Looking across all questions, we have calculated a measure of how accurate the population of each country is. This gives us our “Index of Ignorance”


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1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 7th 2nd 10th 6th 11th 8th 14th 1st 13th 4th 3rd 12th 9th 5th INDEX OF IGNORANCE Sweden Germany Japan Spain GB US Poland Hungary Italy South Korea Belgium France Canada Australia (Least accurate at top)


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National Perceptions PERILS OF PERCEPTION IN BRITAIN


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PERILS OF PERCEPTION IN BRITAIN The British public are often very wrong about the basic make-up of their population and the scale of key social issues such as unemployment and behaviours like voting.


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% who thought immigration is 26% or more IMMIGRATION According to official statistics the percentage of the British population that was born in another country is actually 13%. Why do you think the percentage is much higher? Base: Asked of all who said 26%+ Respondents who thought immigration was more than double the actual figure said the main reason they over-estimated is because they believe illegal immigrants enter the country without being counted.


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CRIME Please tell me whether you think the following statement is true or false: The murder rate is rising in Britain A quarter of the British public think the murder rate is rising – but half (correctly) say it is falling. More people get this correct in Britain than any other country


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This study is based on a survey run on Ipsos Global @dvisor, between 12-26 August 2014 Global @dvisor is conducted monthly in 24 countries around the world via the Ipsos Online Panel. For this study, 14 countries with high internet penetration were included: Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden and the US. The research is based on an international sample of 11,527 adults aged 18-64 in the US and Canada, and aged 16-64 in all other countries. Sample size is approximately 1,000 per country, with the exception of Belgium, Hungary, Poland, South Korea and Sweden where each have a sample of approximately 500 Data are weighted to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to the most recent Census data in each country The “point difference” figures that show differences between the “actual” and “average guesses” may not match a straight subtraction. This is due to rounding, as the calculation is conducted using decimal places


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© Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION For more information, please contact: Bobby Duffy, Global Director Ipsos Social Research Institute bobby.duffy@ipsos.com @BobbyIpsosMORI


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