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AWS Q3’15 Results Reveal the Future of Storage OpEx

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AWS Q3’15 Results Reveal the Future of Storage OpEx October, 2015


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The Promise of the OpEx Model …And if traditional data center servers, networks and/or storage are running at 20% utilization, the effective cost of a given level of computing is actually five times higher than assumed in a CapEx vs. OpEx cost comparison. The UC Berkeley RAD Lab estimates cloud providers have lowered data center costs by 75 to 80. Some of this is due to purchasing power, some is through more efficient management practices, and some because these businesses are managed with a laser a focus on cost… wwww.itbrandpulse.com 2


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Bellwether for IT OpEx Actual IT OpEx with AWS IT Brand Pulse estimate for storage OpEx: 15% Source: Q3 2015 Financial Results Conference Call Slides, file:///C:/Users/Frank/Downloads/Webslides_Q315_Final.pdf wwww.itbrandpulse.com


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Cloud Infrastructure Services AWS = 1/3 of market wwww.itbrandpulse.com 4


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Public Cloud Storage Revenue If AWS has 33% market share, then the total market = 3.56B in 2015 Period AWS $B AWS Share Others Total $B Storage % Storage $B Q1 $ 1.50 ** 33% $ 3.00 $ 4.50 15% $ 0.68 Q2 $ 1.80 ** 33% $ 3.60 $ 5.40 15% $ 0.81 Q3 $ 2.10 ** 33% $ 4.20 $ 6.30 15% $ 0.95 Q4 $ 2.50 33% $ 5.00 $ 7.50 15% $ 1.13 2015 $ 7.90 33% $ 15.80 $ 23.70 15% $ 3.56 ** AWS Revenue reported for Q3 *** *** IT Brand Pulse estimate for storage as a percent of overall public cloud IaaS wwww.itbrandpulse.com 5


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Anatomy of IT Brand Pulse Storage OpEx Forecast Offered by MSPs and public cloud providers, managed private clouds take off. Off-prem and on-prem grow at the same rate. Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Traditional Enterprise Storage CapEx Growth % $ 33,879 $ 33,993 0.3% $ 33,950 -0.1% $ 33,290 -1.9% $ 32,200 -3.3% $ 30,200 -6.2% $ 27,300 -9.6% $ 23,700 -13.2% $ 19,200 -19.0% $ 14,600 -24.0% $ 9,500 -34.9% Private Cloud On Prem OpEx $ 113 $ 201 $ 379 $ 671 $ 1,107 $ 1,772 $ 2,746 $ 3,982 $ 5,495 $ 6,869 $ 8,243 Private Cloud Growth % Off Prem OpEx $ 157 77.0% $ 277 88.9% $ 524 77.0% $ 927 65.0% $ 1,529 60.0% $ 2,447 55.0% $ 3,792 45.0% $ 5,499 38.0% $ 7,588 25.0% $ 9,486 20.0% $ 11,383 Decline in traditional enterprise storage accelerates at the turn of the decade It’s a zero-sum game with overall global storage spending constant at 3% Growth % Public Cloud OpEx $ 2,165 77.0% $ 2,750 88.9% $ 3,500 77.0% $ 4,600 65.0% $ 5,850 60.0% $ 7,470 55.0% $ 9,300 45.0% $ 11,250 38.0% $ 13,500 25.0% $ 16,200 20.0% $ 19,450 Total Storage Growth % Revenue $ 36,314 27.0% $ 37,221 27.3% $ 38,353 31.4% $ 39,488 27.2% $ 40,686 27.7% $ 41,888 24.5% $ 43,138 21.0% $ 44,431 20.0% $ 45,784 20.0% $ 47,154 20.1% $ 48,575 Growth % 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Public cloud growth grows at 20-30% wwww.itbrandpulse.com 6


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10 Year Data Center Storage Revenue Forecast $60,000 Billions $50,000 $40,000 Public Cloud Storage OpEx 7.5 3.6 .9 4.2 $30,000 Private Cloud Storage OpEx On premise and off premise $20,000 33.9 30.2 $10,000 Traditional Enterprise Storage Capex $2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 wwww.itbrandpulse.com 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 7


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10 Year CapEx vs. OpEx Storage Forecast $60,000 Billions From 2015-2018, OpEx grows from 1/10 to 1/4 of storage spending $50,000 $40,000 27.9% 11.5% Public + Private Cloud Storage OpEx $30,000 $20,000 88.5% 72.1% $10,000 Traditional Enterprise Storage CapEx $2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 wwww.itbrandpulse.com 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 8


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Summary • AWS revenue expected to be about $8B in 2015 • If AWS has 33% market share, the overall market = $24B in 2015 • If storage = 15%, the market for Storage OpEx = $3.6B in 2015 • IT Brand Pulse expects managed private clouds, including offerings from public cloud providers, to take off • In 2020 OpEx will reach 50% of storage spending • By 2023, 80% of storage spending will be OpEx 9 wwww.itbrandpulse.com


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Request the spread sheet and build your own forecast info@itbrandpulse.com


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