'

Is Venture Capital Over-Valued?

Понравилась презентация – покажи это...





Слайд 0

Is Venture Over‐valued? Numbers to ponder… Sand Hill Econometrics October 20, 2015


Слайд 1

The Sand Hill Index An index of value for venture‐funded companies Like a stock market index, eg, Wilshire 5000 or ^DJTSM – Value‐weighted Continuously invested Compiled on a current‐value basis Shows changes over time for a portfolio invested in all venture‐funded companies


Слайд 2


Слайд 3

  Data – VentureSource (DowJones) 82,000 valuation events (rounds and exits) 25,000 companies 9,000 companies still private now 16,400 total exits 1,900 IPOs 7,500 acquisitions 7,000 failures


Слайд 4

Index Computation Strategy A value for every company every month Companies enter index upon first round of funding Companies exit at IPO, Acquisition, or Shutdown If company raises a round, shares value, we use it If company raises a round, no value, we estimate it For IPOs, use pre‐money value If shutdown, value = 0 If acquisition, value shared, we use it If acquisition, no value shared, we estimate it Interpolate between rounds, and extrapolate after last round Essential: Adjust estimated values for selection bias.


Слайд 5

Data challenges: 1) Gravefinder bot to find quiet failures. 2) Rounds: Upward bias in reported values. Correct bias using uncensored, secret, data. 3) About half of acquired companies do not share a value. Many are actually failures. To estimate missing values, we use everything we know about the company (money raised, industry, location, level of the stock market, years from first round, business status, bridge before exit, whether acquirer was public or private, and more), plus data we have gathered on effort required to find findable values. Bigger effort to find a value ⇒lower value.


Слайд 6

The Index 6,000 5,000 4,000 The Sand Hill Index: All Industries 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 © 2014 Sand Hill Econometrics, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED


Слайд 7

Industries 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 The Sand Hill Index: All Industries Compared 10,000 Info Tech - Hardware 8,000 Info Tech - Software 6,000 Total 4,000 2,000 Health Retail Other Cleantech 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 © 2014 Sand Hill Econometrics, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED


Слайд 8

Some summary statistics Total $$ invested in exited companies $410 bn Total $$ value of exiting companies $1,215 bn $$ Value to investors from exits $700 bn $$ Value to founders & ees $515 bn Gross nominal return to investors: 18%/yr All figures are before fees and carry % of founders with $ > 0 at exit: 30% Market Cap of companies still private now $870 bn $$ invested in companies still private now $250 bn


Слайд 9

3/1/1992 10/1/1992 5/1/1993 12/1/1993 7/1/1994 2/1/1995 9/1/1995 4/1/1996 11/1/1996 6/1/1997 1/1/1998 8/1/1998 3/1/1999 10/1/1999 5/1/2000 12/1/2000 7/1/2001 2/1/2002 9/1/2002 4/1/2003 11/1/2003 6/1/2004 1/1/2005 8/1/2005 3/1/2006 10/1/2006 5/1/2007 12/1/2007 7/1/2008 2/1/2009 9/1/2009 4/1/2010 11/1/2010 6/1/2011 1/1/2012 8/1/2012 3/1/2013 10/1/2013 5/1/2014 12/1/2014 VC Market Cap as Percent of US Public Market Cap  3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00%


Слайд 10

2014Q4 2014Q1 2013Q2 2012Q3 2011Q4 2011Q1 2010Q2 2009Q3 2008Q4 2008Q1 2007Q2 2006Q3 2005Q4 2005Q1 2004Q2 2003Q3 2002Q4 2002Q1 2001Q2 2000Q3 1999Q4 1999Q1 1998Q2 1997Q3 1996Q4 1996Q1 1995Q2 1994Q3 1993Q4 1993Q1 1992Q2 1991Q3 1990Q4 1990Q1 Are a few high‐value mature companies responsible? Look at first rounds. Total money raised in first rounds, 1990‐2015q2 ($ millions) 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00


Слайд 11

2014Q4 2014Q1 2013Q2 2012Q3 2011Q4 2011Q1 2010Q2 2009Q3 2008Q4 2008Q1 2007Q2 2006Q3 2005Q4 2005Q1 2004Q2 2003Q3 2002Q4 2002Q1 2001Q2 2000Q3 1999Q4 1999Q1 1998Q2 1997Q3 1996Q4 1996Q1 1995Q2 1994Q3 1993Q4 1993Q1 1992Q2 1991Q3 1990Q4 1990Q1 What about value per dollar raised in first rounds? Pre‐money value per $ raised, first rounds,  1990‐2015q2 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00


Слайд 12

2014Q4 2014Q1 2013Q2 2012Q3 2011Q4 2011Q1 2010Q2 2009Q3 2008Q4 2008Q1 2007Q2 2006Q3 2005Q4 2005Q1 2004Q2 2003Q3 2002Q4 2002Q1 2001Q2 2000Q3 1999Q4 1999Q1 1998Q2 1997Q3 1996Q4 1996Q1 1995Q2 1994Q3 1993Q4 1993Q1 1992Q2 1991Q3 1990Q4 1990Q1 And the number of companies doing a first round? New companies per quarter, 1990‐2015 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0


Слайд 13

Who gets the exit value? Venture Capital Exit Value by year, bns of $$ 200 180 160 140 120 founders investors 100 80 60 40 20 0


Слайд 14

And the role of Northern California? (note two cliffs in market cap – Google exit in 2004, Facebook exit in 2012) Northern California, % of mkt cap and money raised 0.6 NoCal % of Mkt Cap 0.5 No Cal % of $$ raised 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 Jun‐15 Sep‐14 Dec‐13 Mar‐13 Jun‐12 Sep‐11 Dec‐10 Mar‐10 Jun‐09 Sep‐08 Dec‐07 Mar‐07 Jun‐06 Sep‐05 Dec‐04 Mar‐04 Jun‐03 Sep‐02 Dec‐01 Mar‐01 Jun‐00 Sep‐99 Dec‐98 Mar‐98 Jun‐97 Sep‐96 Dec‐95 Mar‐95 Jun‐94 Sep‐93 Dec‐92 Mar‐92 0


Слайд 15


×

HTML:





Ссылка: