Transforming Healthcare: The Promise of Innovation

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John L. Haughom, MD December 2014 Transforming Healthcare: The Promise of Innovation

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Healthcare: The Way It Should Be Part One – Forces Driving Transformation Chapter One – Forces Defining and Shaping the Current State of U.S. Healthcare Chapter Two – Present and Future Challenges Facing U.S. Healthcare Part Two – Laying the Foundation for Improvement and Sustainable Change What will it take to successfully ride the transformational wave? Part Three – Looking into the Future What will it take to successfully ride the transformational wave? 2 Available for FREE download at: http://www.healthcatalyst.com/ebooks/healthcare-transformation-healthcare-a-better-way/

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Why Innovation Now? Healthcare organizations need innovation to address: Inconsistent quality Unacceptable levels of harm Widespread waste Unsustainable growth in costs Rapidly rising demand Looming provider shortages 3

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Innovation Definition “The design, invention, development and/or implementation of new or altered products, services, processes, systems, organizational structures, or business models for the purpose of creating new value for customers and financial returns for the firm.” 4 Department of Commerce Advisory Committee on Measuring Innovation in the 21st Century Economy. Available at: http://www.esa.doc.gov/Reports/innovation-measurement-tracking-state-innovation-american-economy

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Types of Innovation Non-disruptive vs. Disruptive 5

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Technology-driven innovation is changing the world… 6

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What does exponential growth feel like?

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8 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 30 Meters Take 30 Linear paces…

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9 Take 30 Exponential paces… 01 02 04 08 16 32 64 128 256 ... 1,073,741,824 meters

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Exponential vs. Linear Growth 10

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Understanding Exponential Technology… Peter Sasson holding the world’s first digital camera. (0.01 megapixels) 11

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12 1996 Market Cap: $28B Employees: 140,000 Linear Exponential “The New Kodak Moment”

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Examples of Disruptive Innovation IP telephony (e.g. Vonage, Skype) Downloadable music (e.g. iTunes) Books (e.g. iBooks, Kindle) Search and advertising (e.g. Google) Streaming media (e.g. Netflix, Hulu, Spotify) Financial transactions (e.g. PayPal, E-trade) Personal communication and networking (e.g. Facebook, LinkedIn) Business communication (e.g. Gmail, Skype, Net Meeting) Electronic commerce (e.g. Amazon, Alibaba) Etc.   13

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In 10 years it’s predicted that 40% of the Fortune 500 companies will no longer exist *Babson Olin School of Business, Fast Company April 2011, p. 121

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Exponential Growth of Computing 15

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Transistors per Chip 16

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Processor Performance (MIPS) 17 Source: Ray Kurzweil. Available at: http://www.kurzweilai.net/sin-charts#!prettyPhoto

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Internet Data Traffic 18 Source: Ray Kurzweil. Available at: http://www.kurzweilai.net/sin-charts#!prettyPhoto

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Mobile Data Traffic 19

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Brain Power Equivalent/$1000 20 Source: Hans Moravec, http://www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm

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Has Technology Advancement Mattered? 21 Tool available and additional information available at: http://www.gapminder.org 200 years that changed the world…

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The Singularity is Near 22 Ray Kurzweil

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Poll Questions Within how many years do you anticipate exponential technologies will significantly impact healthcare? 113 respondents < 2 years – 34% 2 to 4 years – 36% 5 to 7 years – 21% >10 years – 9% 23

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Historical Healthcare Innovation Historically, innovation in healthcare has been linear, not exponential Examples: Warfarin vs. Pradaxa Open Cholecystectomy vs. Laparoscopic cholecystectomy Coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) vs. Cardiac stents Going forward, expect disruptive (exponential) innovation in non-traditional categories Examples: Automated, intelligent care environments Genomic-based personalized care New technology-enabled care models (ambulatory- and patient-centric) Integrated delivery organization design (ACOs) 24

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Harnessing the Power of Exponential Technologies 25 Faster, Cheaper, Computing Power

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Programming Life & Health 26 Computer code Genetic code Gene splicing

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The Tale of Two Mice 27 Reference: Flier SN, Kulkarni RN & Kahn CR. 2001. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA., 98:7475-7480

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DNA Sequencing Cost 28 Source: Ray Kurzweil. Available at: http://www.kurzweilai.net/sin-charts#!prettyPhoto Carlson, R. The Pace and Proliferation of Biological Technologies. 2003. Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science Volume 1 Number 3. http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0614.html

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DNA Sequencing Data 29 Source: Ray Kurzweil. Available at: http://www.kurzweilai.net/sin-charts#!prettyPhoto

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Wearable Sensors – Endless Opportunities 30

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Sensory Data Means Big Data 31 Sensor data from a cross-country-flight 20 terabytes of information per engine every hour Twin engine Boeing 737 Six hour cross-country flight from New York to Los Angeles # of commercial flights in the sky in the United States on any given day Days in a year = 2,499,841,200 TB (One Zetabyte = 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes)

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Poll Question Who will drive the sensor revolution in healthcare? 120 respondents Consumers – 27% Employers – 1% Payers – 4% Health systems – 2% All of the above – 67% 32

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Seizing the Opportunity Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you did not do then by the things that you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor and catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover. Mark Twain 33

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Thank You Upcoming Educational Opportunities There Is A 90% Probability That Your Son is Pregnant: Predicting the Future of Predictive Analytics in Healthcare Date: December 17, 1-2pm, EST Host: Dale Sanders, Senior Vice President, Health Catalyst Register at http://healthcatalyst.com/

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? Placeholder, enter your own text here Questions, discussion, comments… For Information Contact: John.Haughom@healthcatalyst.com ? ?