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Public Opinion Landscape for the 2016 Election (January)

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Election 2016 – A Brief Overview and Analysis J ANUARY 2016


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MO O D O F THE CO UNTRY


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N U M B ER O F A M E R IC ANS W H O V I E W C O U NTRY O N T H E W R O N G T R A C K I S H I G H ES T S I N CE 2 0 1 2 WRONG TRACK 65.5% The percentage of Americans saying the nation is heading in the right direction hasn’t topped 50% in about a decade. RIGHT DIRECTION 25.2% Source: HuffPost Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 12, 2016 PAGE  3


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A M E R I C A N S A R E D I S S AT I S F I E D O R A N G R Y A B O U T T H E W A Y T H I N GS A R E G O I N G I N WA S H I NG TON Which comes closest to your feelings about the way things are going in Washington – enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry? Barack Obama's Current Job Approval 47% Enthusiastic 49% 1% Source: Gallup Poll, January 4-10, 2016 Approve Satisfied but not enthusiastic Disapprove 12% Congress Current Job Approval 75% 53% Dissatisfied but not angry 15% Angry 31% Approve Disapprove PAGE 4 Source: CBS News / NY Times Poll, December 4-8, 2015 Source: CBS News / NY Times Poll, January 7-10, 2016


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P U B L I C ’ S I S S U E P R I O R I T I E S R E F L E C T S A N A T I O N T H AT F E E L S L E S S S E C U RE Let me list some issues that have been proposed for the federal government to address. Please tell me which ONE OR TWO of these items you think should be the top priority for the federal government? National security has become the top issue on the public’s mind for the federal government to address, overtaking jobs and the economy. PAGE  5 Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, December 6-9, 2015


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D I S T I NCT S P L I T B E T WE EN T H E PA R TIE S O N T H E M O S T I M P O R TA N T I S S U E Which of these is the single most important issue in your choice for president? 38% 38% 29% 19% 17% 8% 5% 7% 2% Economy Terrorism Health Care Democrats Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, December 10-13, 2015 Immigration 4% Tax Policy Republicans PAGE 6


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D I F F E RENCE S I N AT T RI BUT ES V O T E RS A R E L O O K I NG F O R I N T H E I R P A R T Y ’ S N O M I N E E ; D E M O C R AT S D E S I R E F O R A L I B E R A L C A N D I D AT E H A S G R O W N Thinking about your party’s nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you? Republicans / Leaners Who Prefer Conservative Presidential Candidate Democrats Republicans December 2007 December 2015 Shares values 19% 20% 60% 60% Cares about needs/problems 28% 13% Strong leadership 16% 29% Honest/Trustworthy 14% 21% December 2007 December 2015 Right experience 16% 8% 30% 36% Best chance of winning 6% 7% Source: Quinnipiac Poll, December 16-20, 2015 Source: Gallup Poll, December 2-6, 2015 Democrats / Leaners Who Prefer Liberal Presidential Candidate PAGE 7


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2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E VI EW – T H E P R E S I D EN CY: R E P U B L I CA N N O M I N A TI ON


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S T A R T E D W I T H 1 7 , N O W D O W N T O 1 2 C A N D I D AT E S Dropped Out PAGE 9


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H I G H E R C A M PA I G N I N T E R E S T A M O N G R E P U B L I C A N S T H A N A T SAME POINT IN ’08; % giving a lot/some thought to the candidates Republican Democrat Independent 80% 86% 74% 71% 66% % who would describe the presidential election campaign so far as “interesting” 75% 72% 79% 69% 65% 48% 64% +10 -15 65% 35% 34% Feb-08 Dec-07 Source: Pew Research Center Poll, December 8-13, 2015 Dec-15 Democrat Jan-12 Republican Dec-15 Independent PAGE 10


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T R U M P S U P PO RT H A S P I C K ED B A C K U P ; C A R S ON FA LTERS A S C R U Z C L I M BS HuffPost Pollster Trend as of January 13, 2016 Candidate 34% 31% 28% 28% 21% 12% 11% 10% 6% 17% 15% 14% 5% 9% 6% 9% 6% July Bush 9% 6% Sept 8% 5% June 15% 14% 8% Oct Cruz Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016 Rubio 19% 10% 8% 7% Nov Trump 14% 13% 11% 8% 6% 5% Dec Jan 37.0% 19.3% 11.3% Ben Carson 37% Donald Trump Marco Rubio Among Republican and Republican leaning voters Average Ted Cruz 2016 Republican Primary Preference 7.5% Jeb Bush 5.0% Chris Christie 3.2% Carly Fiorina 2.7% Rand Paul 2.6% John Kasich 2.4% Mike Huckabee 2.2% Rick Santorum 0.6% Jim Gilmore 0.0% Carson PAGE 11


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M A J O RI TY O F R E P U B LIC ANS H AVE N’ T M A D E U P T H E I R M I N D S O N A C A N D I D AT E ; J U S T O N E I N F O U R S A Y T H E Y D E F I N I T E LY D O N ’ T WA N T T R U MP Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president? Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? 28% Trump 24% Bush 64% 58% 41% 63% 14% Paul 36% 36% 13% Kasich 12% Carson 10% Christie Total Cruz supporter Trump supporter Made up Might change Source: Quinnipiac Poll, December 16-20, 2015 Rubio Cruz 7% 5% PAGE 12


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R E P U BL ICA NS H AV E M O R E C O N DI FENC E I N T R U M P T H A N O T H E R C O N T E N D E R S W H E N I T C O M E S T O T H E E C O N O M Y, T E R R O R I S M How confident are you in the candidate’s ability to make the right decisions about the economy? How confident are you in the candidate’s ability to handle the threat of terrorism? 40% 51% 30% 16% 16% Donald Trump 20% 26% 23% Ben Carson Marco Rubio Ted Cruz % Very Confident Source: CBS News/New York Times Poll, December 4-8, 2015 17% 15% Jeb Bush Donald Trump Ben Carson Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Jeb Bush % Very Confident PAGE 13


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T R U M P A N D C R U Z R U N A C L O S E R A C E I N I O WA W H I L E T R U MP L E A D S I N N E W H A M P SH IRE Candidate Average Candidate Average Donald Trump 27.9% Donald Trump 29.1% Ted Cruz 27.7% Marco Rubio 14.2% Marco Rubio 12.7% Ted Cruz 11.9% Ben Carson 7.6% Chris Christie 11.3% Jeb Bush 4.2% John Kasich 10.5% Source: HuffPost Pollster, based on the average of the most recent polls by unique pollsters PAGE 14


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2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E VI EW – T H E P R E S I D EN CY: D E M O C RATI C N O M I N ATIO N


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C L I N T O N O N T O P I N D E M O C R AT I C R A C E , B U T S A N D E R S H A S N A R R OWE D H E R L E A D 2016 Democratic Primary Preference Among registered/leaned Democrats HuffPost Pollster Trend 60% as of January 13, 2016 58% 55% 56% 52% 39% 24% 12% June 25% Sept Oct 30% 33% Average Hillary Clinton 45% Candidate 52.4% Bernie Sanders 47% 38.5% Martin O’Malley 2.4% 17% July Sanders Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016 Nov Dec Jan Clinton PAGE 16


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M A J O R I T Y O F D E M O C R AT S H A V E T H E I R M I N D M A D E U P O N W H I C H C A N D I D AT E T H E Y A R E S U P P O R T I N G Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Democratic nomination for president? Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? 58% No one 59% 57% 41% 55% 44% 38% Sanders Total Clinton supporter Made up 9% Sanders supporter Might change Source: Quinnipiac Poll, December 16-20, 2015 19% O'Malley Clinton 8% PAGE 17


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T H E R A C E I S C L O S E B E T W EEN C L I NTON A N D S A N DE RS I N B O T H I O WA A N D N E W H A M P S HIRE Candidate Average Candidate Average Hillary Clinton 45.9% Bernie Sanders 49.8% Bernie Sanders 42.2% Hillary Clinton 44.3% Martin O’Malley 5.1% Martin O’Malley 2.7% Source: HuffPost Pollster, based on the average of the most recent polls by unique pollsters PAGE 18


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PREDICTIO N MARKET & WHAT’S UPCO MING


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T H E P R E D I CTI ON M A R K ETS PredictWise Chance of Winning Democratic Nomination Hillary Clinton 83% As of January 14th PredictWise Chance of Winning Republican Nomination Donald Trump 34% 32% Marco Rubio Bernie Sanders Martin O'Malley 16% 21% Ted Cruz 10% Jeb Bush 1% Chris Christie 3% Source: PredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster PAGE 20


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A M A J O RIT Y O F A M E R I CANS H AV E WAT CH ED AT L E A S T S O M E O F T H E P R E S I DEN TIA L D E B ATES, A C O M P LE TE C O N T RAST T O 8 YEARS AGO So far, have you watched any of the televised debates between presidential candidates or haven’t you had a chance to watch any of them? Yes 69% Dec-15 Dec-07 Source: Pew Research Center, December 8-13, 2015 No 43% 31% 57% PAGE 21


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D E B ATE S C H E DUL E Source: Washington Post PAGE 22


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E A R LY 2 0 1 6 P R I MA RY & C A U C US C A L E NDA R Note: All dates tentative and subject to change prior to 2016 Date State Monday, February 1, 2016 Iowa (caucus) Tuesday, February 9, 2016 New Hampshire (primary) Saturday, February 20, 2016 South Carolina (primary) Tuesday, February 23, 2016 Nevada (caucus) Tuesday, March 1, 2016 Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas Tuesday, March 15, 2016 Florida (primary) 18 DAYS UNTIL IOWA CAUCUS PAGE 23


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M A J O RI TY O F A M E R I CAN S B E L I EVE T H E 2 0 1 6 C A M PAIGN T O B E “ I N T E R E S T I N G , ” “ T O O N E G AT I V E , ” A N D “ N O T F O C U S E D O N I M P O R TA N T P O L I C Y D E B AT E S . ” Would you describe the presidential campaign as dull or interesting? Would you describe the presidential campaign as too negative or not? Would you describe the presidential campaign as focused on important policy debates or not? 67% 58% 54% 39% 34% 26% Dull Interesting Source: Pew Research Center, December 8-13, 2015 Too negative Not too negative Focused on Not focused on important policy important policy debates debates PAGE 24


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N E I T HE R F R O NT RUNN ER M E T W I T H A L O T O F E N T H USI ASM; S O M E W H AT M O R E A N X I E T Y A B O U T A T R U M P P R E S I D E N C Y T H A N A C L I N TON O N E If Donald Trump is elected as President, what best describes your feelings about what he will do in office? Total Rep Dem Ind Excited 11% 25% 2% 8% Optimistic, not excited 24% 41% 8% Concerned, not scared 24% 20% Scared 40% 13% If Hillary Clinton is elected as President, what best describes your feelings about what she will do in office? Source: CBS News/New York Times Poll, Dec 4-8, 2015 Total Rep Dem Ind Excited 9% 2% 22% 4% 23% Optimistic, not excited 33% 8% 54% 35% 25% 26% Concerned, not scared 23% 24% 17% 27% 63% 41% Scared 34% 65% 6% 32% PAGE 25


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GPG Research The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs. Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpg.com) 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor Washington, DC 20004 121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM


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