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CBO's Economic Projections

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Congressional Budget Office September 8, 2015 CBO’s Economic Projections Presentation at the NYU Stern Economic Outlook Forum New York City, New York Wendy Edelberg Assistant Director, Macroeconomic Analysis


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CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 1


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Growth of Real GDP CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 2


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Contributions to the Growth of Real GDP CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 3


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Real Total Compensation of Employees CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 4


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Business Investment CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 5


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Household Formation CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 6


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Growth of Trade CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 7


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CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 8


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Rates of Short- and Long-Term Unemployment CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 9


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Underuse of Labor CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 10


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Employment Shortfall The employment shortfall is the number of people who would be employed if the unemployment rate equaled its rate in December 2007 (the light blue bars) and if the labor force participation rate equaled its potential rate (the dark blue bars). CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 11


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The Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 12


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Labor Force Participation Rates CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 13


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Hourly Labor Compensation CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 14


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CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 15


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GDP and Potential GDP CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 16


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Inflation CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 17


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Forecasts of Interest Rates by CBO, the Federal Reserve, and Federal Funds Futures CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 18


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Interest Rates CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 19


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Nominal and Real 10-Year Treasury Notes *Calculated using the consumer price index for all urban consumers. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 20


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Spread Between 10-Year Treasury Notes and 3-Month Treasury Bills CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 21


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Interest Rates on 10-Year Treasury Notes CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 22


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