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Finding the Next Facebook

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Finding the Next Facebook Michael Moe, CFA Founder, GSV Asset Management @michaelmoe


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Every day in America 1,100 new businesses are formed. Source: Gallup, U.S. Census Bureau


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Every day in America 1,300 businesses fail. Source: Gallup, U.S. Census Bureau


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In 2014, Venture Capitalists invested in 4,356 companies. Source: NVCA, PwC


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In 2014, just 115 venturebacked companies went public…. Source: Thomson Reuters, NVCA


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…and that was the best year since 2000. Source: Dow Jones Venture Source, Fenwick & West


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20% Chance Company Survives First 3 Years


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What kind of nut would start a business?


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Name that “Nut”


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Lost job in ’32


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Defeated in race for State Legislature in ’32


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Failed in business ‘33


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He had a nervous breakdown in ’41


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Defeated in races for: Congress in ‘43 Senate in ‘55 Vice President in ‘56 Senate in ‘58


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And the answer is…


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Teachers told him he was “too stupid to learn anything”


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Fired from his first two jobs for lack of productivity


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Thomas Edison


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$272 Billion Market Cap


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He was fired by a newspaper editor because he "lacked imagination and had no good ideas"


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Launched film studios in 1920 and 1921… both went bankrupt


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$195 Billion Market Cap


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$233 Billion Market Cap


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“In order to earn better than a ‘C’, the idea must be feasible.” -Yale professor response to a paper he submitted in 1965


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Whatever it Takes


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Wilson turned FedEx’s last $5,000 into $27,000 at the Black Jack table


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$49 Billion Market Cap


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Howard Schultz CEO, Starbucks


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$82 Billion Market Cap


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Dyslexic


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Turned down by 53 banks for a business loan


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Founded 8 Billion Dollar Businesses


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The Power of Growth


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Top 25 Stocks 2005 - 2015


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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12


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13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25


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Median Stock CAGR 31% Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance


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Median EPS CAGR 39% Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance


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Median P/E, 2005 36x Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance


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Median Market Cap, 2005 $361 million Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance


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Conclusion 1) Focus on Companies with the Highest Growth, not the Bargain Basement


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Conclusion 2 2) Focus on Small Companies — SIZE FORGES AN ANCHOR


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“People may bet on hourly wiggles of the market but it’s the earnings that waggle the wiggle long term.” -Peter Lynch


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Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance $80$ $60$ $120$ EPS Stock Price 2005-2015 01 0 Au 200 5$ g0 01 02 00 Fe 5$ b0 01 0 Au 200 6$ g0 01 02 00 Fe b0 6$ 01 0 Au 200 7$ g0 01 02 00 Fe 7$ b0 01 0 Au 200 8$ g0 01 02 00 Fe 8$ b0 01 0 Au 200 9$ g0 01 02 00 Fe 9$ b0 01 0 Au 201 0$ g0 01 02 01 Fe 0$ b0 01 0 Au 201 1$ g0 01 02 01 Fe 1$ b0 01 0 Au 201 2$ g0 01 02 01 Fe 2$ b0 01 0 Au 201 3$ g0 01 02 01 Fe b0 3$ 01 0 Au 201 4$ g0 01 02 01 Fe 4$ b0 01 02 01 5$ Apple Fe b0 $140$ Stock Price CAGR: 36% EPS CAGR: 55% $8.00$ $7.00$ $6.00$ $100$ $5.00$ $20$ $0$ $4.00$ $3.00$ $40$ $2.00$ $1.00$ $0.00$


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Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance $60 $100 EPS Stock Price 2005-2015 00 4 -3 020 De 05 c31 Ju -20 05 n30 De -20 06 c31 Ju -20 06 n30 De -20 07 c31 Ju -20 07 n30 De -20 08 c31 Ju -20 08 n30 De -20 09 c31 Ju -20 09 n30 De -20 10 c31 Ju -20 10 n30 De -20 11 c31 Ju -20 11 n30 De -20 12 c31 Ju -20 12 n30 De -20 13 c31 Ju -20 13 n30 De -20 14 c31 -2 01 4 Monster Ju n 31 -2 c- De $120 Stock Price CAGR: 47% EPS CAGR: 37% $3.00 $2.50 $80 $2.00 $1.50 $40 $1.00 $20 $0.50 $0 $0.00


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31 2005-2015 Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance Ju -20 04 n30 De -20 05 c31 Ju -20 05 n30 De -20 06 c31 Ju -20 06 n30 De -20 07 c31 Ju -20 07 n30 De -20 08 c31 Ju -20 08 n30 De -20 09 c31 Ju -20 09 n30 De -20 10 c31 Ju -20 10 n30 De -20 11 c31 Ju -20 11 n30 De -20 12 c31 Ju -20 12 n30 De -20 13 c31 Ju -20 13 n30 De -20 14 c31 -2 01 4 Netflix De c- $300$ $200$ EPS Stock Price $600$ Stock Price CAGR: 39% EPS CAGR: 35% $5.00$ $4.50$ $500$ $4.00$ $3.50$ $400$ $3.00$ $2.50$ $0$ $2.00$ $1.50$ $1.00$ $100$ $0.50$ $0.00$


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Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance 02 00 4$ 03 00 De 200 5$ c0 31 02 00 Ju n0 5$ 30 0 De 200 6$ c0 31 02 00 Ju n0 6$ 30 0 De 200 7$ c0 31 02 00 Ju n0 7$ 30 02 00 De 8$ c0 31 02 00 Ju n0 8$ 30 0 De 200 9$ c0 31 02 00 Ju n0 9$ 30 0 De 201 0$ c0 31 02 01 Ju n0 0$ 30 0 De 201 1$ c0 31 02 01 Ju n0 1$ 30 0 De 201 2$ c0 31 02 01 Ju n0 2$ 30 0 De 201 3$ c0 31 02 01 Ju n0 3$ 30 0 De 201 4$ c0 31 02 01 4$ Ju n 31 2005-2015 De c0 $1,000$ Priceline $800$ $600$ $1,400$ EPS Stock Price $1,600$ Stock Price CAGR: 47% EPS CAGR: 54% $40.00$ $35.00$ $1,200$ $30.00$ $25.00$ $20.00$ $15.00$ $400$ $10.00$ $200$ $5.00$ $0$ $0.00$


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Growth Double-Edged Sword


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Where would you rather invest $100K?


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High Octane Fund Year 1 Up 100% Year 2 Down 30%


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Steady Eddy Fund Year 1 Up 20% Year 2 Up 20%


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Start $100K YEAR 1 YEAR 2 Return Value Return Value High Octane 100% Steady Eddy 20%


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Start $100K YEAR 1 YEAR 2 Return Value Return Value High Octane 100% $200K Steady Eddy 20% $120K


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YEAR 1 YEAR 2 Return Value Return Value High Octane 100% $200K (30%) Steady Eddy 20% Start $100K $120K 20%


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YEAR 1 YEAR 2 Return Value Return Value High Octane 100% $200K (30%) $140K Steady Eddy 20% Start $100K $120K 20%


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YEAR 1 YEAR 2 Return Value Return Value High Octane 100% $200K (30%) $140K Steady Eddy 20% Start $100K $120K 20% $144K


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Breaking Even Down To Break Even -10% 11% -30% 43% -50% 100% -70% 333% -90% 1000%


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1/ 2/ 90 1/ 2/ 91 1/ 2/ 92 1/ 2/ 93 1/ 2/ 94 1/ 2/ 95 1/ 2/ 96 1/ 2/ 97 1/ 2/ 98 1/ 2/ 99 1/ 2/ 00 1/ 2/ 01 1/ 2/ 02 1/ 2/ 03 1/ 2/ 04 1/ 2/ 05 1/ 2/ 06 1/ 2/ 07 1/ 2/ 08 1/ 2/ 09 1/ 2/ 10 1/ 2/ 11 1/ 2/ 12 1/ 2/ 13 1/ 2/ 14 1/ 2/ 15 NASDAQ 2000: 5,000 6,000 5,000 Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance 1 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0


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1/ 2/ 90 1/ 2/ 91 1/ 2/ 92 1/ 2/ 93 1/ 2/ 94 1/ 2/ 95 1/ 2/ 96 1/ 2/ 97 1/ 2/ 98 1/ 2/ 99 1/ 2/ 00 1/ 2/ 01 1/ 2/ 02 1/ 2/ 03 1/ 2/ 04 1/ 2/ 05 1/ 2/ 06 1/ 2/ 07 1/ 2/ 08 1/ 2/ 09 1/ 2/ 10 1/ 2/ 11 1/ 2/ 12 1/ 2/ 13 1/ 2/ 14 1/ 2/ 15 NASDAQ 2000: 1,200 6,000 5,000 4,000 1,000 Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance 1 -76% 3,000 2,000 2 0


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1/ 2/ 90 1/ 2/ 91 1/ 2/ 92 1/ 2/ 93 1/ 2/ 94 1/ 2/ 95 1/ 2/ 96 1/ 2/ 97 1/ 2/ 98 1/ 2/ 99 1/ 2/ 00 1/ 2/ 01 1/ 2/ 02 1/ 2/ 03 1/ 2/ 04 1/ 2/ 05 1/ 2/ 06 1/ 2/ 07 1/ 2/ 08 1/ 2/ 09 1/ 2/ 10 1/ 2/ 11 1/ 2/ 12 1/ 2/ 13 1/ 2/ 14 1/ 2/ 15 NASDAQ Today: 5,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 1,000 Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance 1 3 +417% 3,000 2,000 2 0


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If you were a consultant for a month, how would you prefer to be paid?


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$10,000 per week…


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…or 1 PENNY on day 1, doubling every day?


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Day 1 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 $10K $10,000 ¢1 $0 Day 1 Day 5 Day 10 Day 15 Day 21 Day 31


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Day 5 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 $10K $10,000 $10,000 $0 Day 1 ¢31 $0 Day 5 Day 10 Day 15 Day 21 Day 31


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Day 10 $40,000 $30,000 $20K $20,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 $10,000 $10,000 $0 Day 1 $0 Day 5 $10 $10 Day 10 Day 15 Day 21 Day 31


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Day 15 $40,000 $30,000 $20K $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 $10,000 $10,000 $0 Day 1 $0 Day 5 $10 Day 10 $328 $328 Day 15 Day 21 Day 31


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Day 21 $40,000 $30K $30,000 $30,000 $21K $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 $10,000 $10,000 $0 Day 1 $0 Day 5 $21,000 $10 Day 10 $328 Day 15 Day 21 Day 31


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Day 31 $21,000,000 $21 million $15,750,000 $21,474,836 $10,500,000 $5,250,000 $0 $40K $30,000 $20,000 $20,000 $0 $0 $10 $328 $21,000 $40,000 $10,000 $10,000 Day 1 Day 5 Day 10 Day 15 Day 21 Day 31


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Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world.


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He who understands it, earns it…


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…he who doesn’t, pays it.


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Rule of 72


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Rule of 72 Interest Rate Years to Double $1 in 30 Years 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 25% 24 12 8 6 5 3 $2.43 $5.74 $13.27 $29.96 $66.21 $807.79


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Island of Manhattan, 1626


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Island of Manhattan, 1626 Bought for $24… Good deal?


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Island of Manhattan, 1626 Value Today at 5% Annual Return $4 billion


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Island of Manhattan, 1626 Value Today at 7.5% Annual Return $36.9 trillion


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Island of Manhattan, 1626 Value Today at 10% Annual Return $275 quadrillion


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Cost of Computing (per MM transistors) $7.03 $0.04 Source: Deloitte 2000 2015


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Cost of Storage (per GB) $4.77 $0.02 Source: Deloitte 2000 2015


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1990: $20K Today: $1 Source: Deloitte


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Moore’s Law Source: Intel


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Global Internet Users (billions) 3.0 R G A C % 1 2 0.7 0.1 1996 Source: Internet Live Stats 2.2 1.5 1.0 0.3 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014


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2.1B Smart Phone Users Source: Strategy Analytics


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Android and iOS App Downloads (billions) 270 R G A C % 31 225 180 140 100 70 2012 Source: Gartner 2013 2014 (P) 2015 (P) 2016 (P) 2017 (P)


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Human Genome Project 1990


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Cost to Map Genome in 2003: $100M Source: NIH


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Cost to Map Genome in 2015: $100 Source: NIH, 23andMe, GSV Asset Management


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Moore’s Law in Solar - Swanson’s Law Costs decline has enabled solar to reach grid parity $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 1977 1983 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 1989 1995 2001 2007 2013


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Population Size 1.4B Source: Facebook, World Bank 1.35B 1.24B


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Market Cap: $245 Billion


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Tweets per Day 500M Source: Statistic Brain, GSV Asset Management


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1 Billion Viewers Watching 6 Billion Hours Per Month Source: Google


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586 Million Minutes Talking Per Day Source: Wall Street Journal


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Total Number of Twitter Accounts 64 Billion WhatsApp Messages per Day Source: Facebook [INSERT]


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Total Number of Twitter per Day Accounts 700 Million Snaps Source: SnapChat [INSERT]


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None of These Companies Existed Before 9/11


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Total Unicorns, 2000: 1 Source: Fortune


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Total Unicorns, Today: 97 Source: Wall Street Journal


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UBERcorns… $10B+ Source: Wall Street Journal


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Bubble vs. Boom


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NASDAQ Top 10: 2000 Company P/E Microsoft Cisco Intel Oracle Sun Microsystems Dell MCI Worldcom Chartered Semiconductor Qualcomm Yahoo! 57x 127x 43x 103x 85x 57x 22x 53x 123x 418x Source: Barron’s


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NASDAQ 100 P/E 2000: 105x Source: CNN Money


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NASDAQ Top 10: 2015 Company Apple Google Microsoft Facebook Amazon Intel Gilead Sciences Cisco Comcast Amgen Source: Barron’s P/E 15x 19x 16x 30x NM 14x 11x 13x 17x 17x


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NASDAQ 100 P/E 2015: 19x Source: GSV Asset Management


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Median Time to IPO 2000: 3 Years Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune


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Median Time to IPO 2000: 3 Years Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune Today: 7 Years


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Median Annual Revenue at IPO 2000: $18M Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune


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Median Annual Revenue at IPO 2000: $18M Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune Today: $68M


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Internet Access 2000: 370 million (6%) Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune


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Internet Access 2000: 370 million (6%) Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune Today: 3.1 billion (43%)


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Broadband Access 2000: 60 million (1%) Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune


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Broadband Access 2000: 60 million (6%) Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune Today: 2.3 billion (32%)


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PC Penetration 2000: 180 million (3%) Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune


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PC Penetration 2000: 180 million (3%) Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune Today: 1.4 billion (20%)


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Mobile Phone Penetration 2000: 740 million (12%) Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune


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Mobile Phone Penetration 2000: 740 million (12%) Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune Today: 5.2 billion (73%)


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Smart Phone Penetration 2000: 0 Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune


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Smart Phone Penetration 2000: 0 Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune Today: 2.1 billion (28%)


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App Downloads 2000: 0 Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune


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App Downloads 2000: 0 Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune Today: 140+ billion


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Digital Natives in Workforce 2000: 6% Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune


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Digital Natives in Workforce 2000: 6% Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune Today: 35%


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Global Middle Class 2000: 1.4 billion Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune


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Global Middle Class 2000: 1.4 billion Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune Today: 2.5 billion


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Old Global Innovation Map


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London “Risk isn’t my cup of tea.”


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New York City “If it’s such a good idea, why hasn’t it been done already.”


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Minneapolis “Looks promising… Let’s test it.”


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San Francisco “Can I write you a check?”


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Shanghai “Great idea. Now it’s my idea.”


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New Global Innovation Map


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Austin


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Boston


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Chicago


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Sao Paulo


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Mumbai


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Shanghai


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Dubai


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Global Silicon Valley


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ImagiNation


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2007 Market Cap: Apple vs. Blackberry $70 Source: Capital IQ, GSV Asset Management $70 Blackberry Apple


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2015 Market Cap: Apple vs. Blackberry $730 $5 Source: Capital IQ, GSV Asset Management Blackberry Apple


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Founded: 1921


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Founded: 2009


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Market Value: $41 Billion


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S t . P e t e r ’s S q u a r e : 2 0 0 5


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S t . P e t e r ’s S q u a r e : 2 0 1 3


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Founded: 1888


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Market Value: Bankrupt


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Founded: 2011


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Market Value: $16 Billion


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Founded: 1957


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Market Cap: $8 Billion


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Founded: 2008


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Market Value: $13 Billion++


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Megatrends Education Technology Sustainability Marketplaces Cloud + Big Data Social - Mobile Investment Themes


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PEOPLE PRODUCT PREDICTABILITY POTENTIAL


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Identifying and Investing in the Stars of Tomorrow Ownership Evaluation Ten Commandments Megatrends Industry 4Ps Company DCF, P/S Valuation Datapoints + Milestones Growth Drives Enterprise Value Short Term Long Term Themes Ranking of Companies Underwriting Investment Confirmation, On Track Megawinners


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