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RAMEZ NAAM @ramez

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THE DISRUPTED FUTURE OF BANKING RAMEZ NAAM @ramez


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[TEXT HAS BEEN ADDED TO SLIDES TO MAKE THEM USEFUL WITHOUT A SPEAKER] DON’T USE TEXT IN PRESENTATIONS


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WHO AM I?


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SCIENCE FICTION AUTHOR


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14 YEARS IN TECH


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HELPED LEAD INTERNAL STARTUP DOING HIGH SCALE, DISTRIBUTED SYSTEMS, MACHINE LEARNING, INFORMATION RETRIEVAL


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LEARNING FROM A DISRUPTIVE ADVERSARY


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NOW TEACHING IMPACTS OF EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGIES


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SCIENCE FICTION IS HERE


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1 MILLION MILES DRIVEN ZERO ACCIDENTS


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SEES THINGS YOU CAN’T SEE REACTS FASTER THAN YOU CAN DRIVES BETTER THAN YOU EVER WILL


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30,000 US ROAD FATALITIES / YEAR 1 MILLION /YEAR GLOBALLY 50 BILLION DRIVING HOURS / YR IN US ~8% OF GDP LOST TO DRIVING TIME


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“DRIVING” WILL GO AWAY HUGE INDUSTRIES DISRUPTED YOUR LIFE CHANGED


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IBM’S WATSON


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TROUNCED TWO BEST HUMANS TASK RECENTLY CONSIDERED IMPOSSIBLE


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IBM’S TARGET MARKET: MEDICINE 16% OF US GDP A BETTER DOCTOR, BETTER DIAGNOSIS


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MEDICINE A LARGE TARGET X-PRIZE TRICORDER PRIZE MOBISANTE ULTRASOUND


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$35K DEDICATED ULTRASOUND -> $500 ANDROID + TELEMEDICINE AND ALGORITHMIC MEDICINE Mobisante mobile ultrasound


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SENSORS EVERYWHERE EVERY APPLIANCE, VEHICLE, DEVICE, CONNECTED


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SENSORS FOR THE BODY THE INTERNET OF US


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iPhone vs. ENIAC Michael O’Donnell $10 TRILLION TO BUILD IPHONE 5 WITH 1940s TECH


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$0 COST OF COMPUTING GOES TO ZERO {AND OF STORAGE, BANDWIDTH, COORDINATION, DISINTERMEDIATION, ETC..}


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WINNERS AND LOSERS


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PHOTOGRAPHY AT AN ALL TIME HIGH KODAK CRUSHED


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$18 Billion


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$10 Billion


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$9.5 Billion


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$18 Billion


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$23 Billion


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AIRBNB HAS NEVER BUILT A HOTEL… BUT HAS A HIGHER MARKET CAP THAN HYATT AND LIKELY TO PASS HILTON < 3 YEARS


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AIRBNB vs. HOTEL CHAINS (MARKET CAPS) AIRBNB: $10b HYATT: $9.5b STARWOOD: $15B (LIKELY PASSED IN 2015) MARRIOTT: 18B (LIKELY PASSED BY 2016) HILTON: $23b (LIKELY PASSED BY 2017)


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WANT TO BE A WINNER? OR A LOSER?


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DISRUPTED


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DISRUPTION STARTS AT THE EDGES THEN HITS THE CORE PAYMENTS ARE THE EDGE


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20% BANKS EARN UP TO 20% OF REVENUE FROM NON-INTEREST SOURCES: ATM FEES, CREDIT CARD FEES, ACCOUNT FEES, ETC..


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3% CREDIT CARDS TAKE 2-3% OF EACH TRANSACTION


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SQUARE WOULD LOVE TO REPLACE VISA AND MASTERCARD


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BUT DOES THE WORLD EVEN NEED SQUARE?


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MOBILE PHONES PER 100 PEOPLE Cellulari


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UBIQUITOUS SMART PHONES WILL ENABLE PAYMENTS WITHOUT ADDED HARDWARE


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$1.6 TRILLION


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CHINA $1.6 TRILLION IN MOBILE PAYMENTS IN 2013 317% GROWTH FROM 2012


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VISA AND MASTERCARD WANT TO OWN THIS SPACE TOO


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BUT 3% SKIM CREATES AMPLE INCENTIVES FOR MERCHANTS & RIVALS


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ANALOGY: MOBILE SOCIAL & MOBILE MESSAGING UBIQUITOUS HARDWARE LOWERED BARRIERS TO ENTRY ALLOWED MULTIPLE NETWORKS TO SOAR RAPIDLY TO HIGH SCALE


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DISRUPTED MONEY WIRING ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE


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DEVELOPING WORLD MAJOR GROWTH AREA DRIVEN BY ‘REMITTANCES’ FROM EMIGREES


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$500 B Transfers


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$528 BILLION IN REMITTANCES IN 2013 8% YOY GROWTH >10% OF GDP IN 20 COUNTRIES $50B IN MONEY TRANSFER FEES


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10% FEES AVERAGE 10%. CAN BE 12% OR HIGHER. $200 ? KENYA = $24 IN FEES. OUTRAGEOUS.


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Remittances totalled $534 billion in 2012, grows annually by ~8%, and accounts for more than 10% of the GDP in over 20 countries. Remittance is one of the most expensive forms of payment. The average cost for remittance in the first quarter of 2013 was 9.05%. At this rate, remittance operators will collect over $50 billion in fees this year. Remittance operators profit from transactions fees, margins added to currency exchange rates, recipient fees, cash payout fees, plus a variety of additional fees. In 2012, Western Union, the largest remittance operator, generated $5.66 billion in revenue with a net profit of $1.02 billion. These fees and margins would be excessive to anyone, but are especially burdensome to the people who use remittance most: low-income migrant workers and their even-lower-income families. “If the cost of sending remittances could be reduced by 5 percentage points…developing countries would receive over $16 billion dollars more each year than they do now. This added income could then provide remittance recipients more opportunity for consumption, savings, and investment in local economies.”—The World Bank


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0%? BITCOIN AS A TRANSFER PROTCOL INHERENTLY GLOBAL AND INSTANT PROCESSORS BIDDING AT 1% CHARGES


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DISRUPTED


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80% THE REAL MONEY FOR BANKS IS LOAN INTEREST 80% OF REVENUE: LOANS & SECURITIES


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BANKS DEPEND UPON DEMAND FOR THEIR LOANS


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US INDUSTRY IS LESS AND LESS CAPITAL INTENSIVE. A LONG TERM NEGATIVE TREND FOR LENDING.


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RECENT EXAMPLES


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$280 million funding $22 BILLION exit


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$800 million funding $10 BILLION value


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AIRBNB NEVER BUILT ONE OF THESE


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BUT AGAIN: NOT JUST RECENT. A LONG TERM TREND TOWARDS INCREASED CAPITAL EFFICIENCY OF PROFITS


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PROBLEM 2: COMPETITION IN LENDING


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PEER TO PEER LENDING


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“AIRBNB FOR LOANS” CONNECTS BORROWERS TO LENDERS DISINTERMEDIATES BANKS


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LENDERS GET HIGHER RATES THAN BONDS BORROWERS GET LOWER RATES THAN CREDIT CARDS LOANS OFTEN PAY DOWN CC DEBT


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LENDERS BUILD PORTFOLIOS TYPICALLY COVER ONLY FRACTION OF A BORROWER SPREAD & SHARE RISK


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188% YOY GROWTH


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P2P LENDING STILL TINY VS $1.8T US LOAN MKT BUT DOUBLING EVERY 9 MONTHS 2/3 NEW LOANS FROM INST. INVESTORS DEFAULT INSURANCE NOW AN OPTION


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GOOGLE LEAD $125M LendingClub ROUND


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OTHER COMPETITORS BEYOND P2P PRIVATE EQUITY FIRMS ?


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$70+ BILLION IN LENDING IN 2013 UP FROM $50B IN 2012 SHIPYARDS, HEAVY INDUSTRY, ETC..


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NIGHTMARE SCENARIO: LARGE ASSET HOLDERS MOVE INTO LENDING ASSISTED BY ALGORITHMS THAT VET LENDERS & NETWORKS THAT DISINTERMEDIATE BANKS


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TRILLIONS IN AVAILABLE ASSETS


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?


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WHAT SHOULD BANKS DO? MOVE FAST IN A FAST CHANGING WORLD KEEP YOUR CUSTOMERS HAPPY! UNDERSTAND YOU’RE NOT THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN KNOW YOUR ADVANTAGES: FDIC, PERCEIVED STABILITY, CONVENIENCE, RELATIONSHIPS DISRUPT YOURSELF BEFORE SOMEONE ELSE DOES


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THE DISRUPTED FUTURE OF BANKING RAMEZ NAAM @ramez


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