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Will the Global Economy Accelerate or Stumble? Our Mid-Year Outlook

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Will the global economy accelerate or stumble? Our Mid-Year Outlook


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The global economy grew modestly in the first half of 2015. But where will it go next?


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In a policy-driven world, we see three possible paths. Path 1 Economic Stagnation Path 3 Moderate Growth Path 2 Secular Expansion


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Path 1 Economic Stagnation U.S. rates rise quickly, restraining growth. Deflation takes over Europe and Japan. China weakens and global trade stagnates. Probability? Low


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Path 2 Secular Expansion China experiences significant consumption growth. The strong dollar and cheap energy fuel a U.S. boom. Europe and emerging markets see major structural reforms. Probability? Low


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Path 3 Moderate Growth Growth is strong enough to support corporate earnings, but not enough to cause inflationary concerns. Probability? High


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How do we get there?


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Europe, China and the U.S. avoid policy mistakes.


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Modest U.S. growth continues and credit conditions remain favorable.


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Greece stays in the Eurozone.


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Reforms stabilize and extend growth in China.


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Our Mid-Year Outlook? Great Moderation 2.0 All signs point to continued moderate growth in the U.S. and abroad.


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We believe: Stocks will keep outperforming bonds. Interest rates will stay low. Investors will pay up for scarce growth and income opportunities.


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The Beat Goes On


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Follow Us @Krishna Memani @OppFunds Download our 2015 Mid-Year Outlook


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Shares of Oppenheimer funds are not deposits or obligations of any bank, are not guaranteed by any bank, are not insured by the FDIC or any other agency, and involve investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Oppenheimer funds are distributed by OppenheimerFunds Distributor, Inc. 225 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10281-1008© 2015 OppenheimerFunds Distributor, Inc. All rights reserved.


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