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3 Reasons Mosaic Stock Could Move Big Next Week
Lower production costs 1
Story so far Mosaic’s potash cash cost of production hit near-record low of $86 per tonne in Q1. The company expects “upper 30%” potash gross margin for Q2. Expansion underway at Mosaic’s low-cost Esterhazy potash mine. Source: Company website
What to watch With potash demand and prices under pressure, can Mosaic sustain gross margins above 30% for Q2 and full year? Target production cost for the year and beyond. Lower costs = strong competitive advantage over peers.
Tight grip over operating expenses 2
Story so far Rightsizing efforts are showing up: Mosaic’s selling, general, and administrative expenses declined 16% year over year in Q1. That boosted Q1 operating profit by 20% year over year.
What to watch Full-year guidance for SG&A expenses: Mosaic incurred $382 million in 2014. Target cost savings and operating earnings projections for the near future.
Growing cash flows and shareholder returns 3
Story so far Mosaic’s free cash flow climbed 20% year over year in Q1. It generated nearly $1.4 billion in FCF last year. In May, Mosaic raised its quarterly dividend by 10% and announced share repurchase program worth $1.5 billion. Mosaic’s capital management priorities. Source: Investor Presentation, June 2015
What to watch Cash flow projections for 2015: With greater capital expenditures outlined for the year, will Mosaic’s FCF continue to expand? Capital allocation plans: Whether Mosaic intends to plow back profits into business, or return more to shareholders.
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