'

The 2016 Election American Foreign and Economic Policy Views

Понравилась презентация – покажи это...





Слайд 0

The 2016 Election: American Foreign and Economic Policy Views Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes Stockholm, January 2016


Слайд 1

Pew Research Center • Established 1996 • Funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts, Foundations • Non-profit, non-partisan, non-advocacy fact tank in Washington • Since 2002, we have surveyed in 85 countries • www.pewresearch.org • @pewresearch January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 2


Слайд 2

THE HORSE RACE January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 3


Слайд 3

Republicans Want a Conservative Nominee, Democrats Prefer a Moderate Would rather see their party nominate someone for president in 2016 who is … Very conservative Conservative Moderate Liberal Very Liberal % % % % % 2007 15 45 30 9 1 2015 18 42 32 6 1 2007 3 16 48 23 7 2015 6 15 40 26 10 Republican Democrat Source: Gallup survey, Dec 2-6, 2015. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 4


Слайд 4

Democrats More Positive on the State of U.S. Economy Economic conditions in the country today are excellent/good Republican Democrat Independent 50 % 39 38 27 22 17 21 14 8 7 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 5


Слайд 5

But Higher Campaign Interest Among Republicans Than at the Same Point in 2008 Given a lot/some thought to the candidates Republican Democrat Independent 86 74% 71% 75 66% Dec 2007 72 Dec 2015 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 6


Слайд 6

STRATEGIC CONCERNS January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 7


Слайд 7

Growing Share of Americans Cite Terrorism and Foreign Issues as the Most Important Problems Facing the U.S. Most important problem facing the country today Dec 2014 Dec 2015 % % Terrorism Economy (general) Defense/National security Immigration Unemployment ISIS/War in Iraq/War in Syria 1 14 2 12 10 2 18 9 8 7 7 7 +17 -5 +6 -5 -3 +5 Dissatisfaction with government, Obama 10 6 -4 Gun control/Too many guns/ Mass shootings Political gridlock/division 1 8 5 5 +4 -3 NET: Foreign/International 9 32 +23 34 23 -11 NET: Economic issues Change Note: Question was open-ended – no specific response options were provided. Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 8


Слайд 8

Partisan Divide on International Concerns: More Republicans Than Democrats See Terrorism, Defense as Top Problems Most important problem facing the country today Rep-Dem diff Dem Ind Rep % % % 5 3 16 4 6 6 7 18 8 12 16 14 24 8 7 R+11 R+11 R+8 R+4 R+1 Dissatisfaction with government, Obama 5 6 4 D+1 Gun control/Too many guns/Mass shootings 5 7 8 6 8 4 4 4 2 D+1 D+3 D+6 24 20 32 25 42 21 R+18 D-1 Defense/National security Immigration Terrorism ISIS/War in Iraq/War in Syria Economy (general) Unemployment Political gridlock/Division NET: Foreign/International NET: Economic issues Note: Question was open-ended – no specific response options were provided. Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 9


Слайд 9

ISIS Tops Public’s International Threat List by Large Margin __ is a major threat to the well-being of the United States Dec 2015 Aug 2014 ISIS 67% 83% 62 59 Iran's nuclear program 59 57 North Korea's nuclear program China's emergence as a world power 49 48 Global climate change 49 48 43 Israeli-Palestinian conflict 42 Growing authoritatianism in Russia* 48 53 *August 2014 survey asked about ‘growing tension between Russia and its neighbors.’ Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 10


Слайд 10

Republicans More Concerned About a Range of International Issues, but Not Climate Change __ is a major threat to the well-being of the United States Republican Democrat ISIS 79% Iran's nuclear program 57 China's emergence as a world power 56 38 Growing authoritatianism in Russia* 40 22 70 62 44 Isreali-Palestinian conflict Global climate change 79 52 North Korea's nuclear program 93% 50 73 *August 2014 survey asked about ‘growing tension between Russia and its neighbors.’ Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 11


Слайд 11

Public Favors GOP on Terrorism, Democrats on Climate Change Which party could do a better job dealing with … Democratic Party Republican Party 46% 34% Terrorist threat at home R+12 Gun control 37 43 R+6 Economy 37 42 R+5 42 R+2 40 Immigration 46 Global climate change Environment 32 53 30 D+14 D+23 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 12


Слайд 12

DEALING WITH TERRORISM January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 13


Слайд 13

Republicans Far More Concerned Than Democrats About Islamic Extremism Abroad and at Home Very concerned about the rise of … Republican Democrat Islamic extremism around the world 83 82 Independent Islamic extremism in the U.S. 71 61 60 51 57 46 37 44 53 51 59 54 36 29 2007 2009 2011 50 46 43 65 49 46 38 24 2013 2015 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 14


Слайд 14

Most Republicans Say Government Anti-Terror Policies Haven’t Gone Far Enough Gov’t anti-terrorism policies have not gone far enough to adequately protect the country 100 % Republican Democrat Independent 71 55 47 46 54 49 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 15


Слайд 15

Few Believe Current Military Effort in Iraq and Syria Is Going Well U.S. military campaign against Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria is going … Not too/at all well Dec 2015 July 2015 58% 35% 62 Feb 2015 30 58 Oct 2014 Very/Fairly well 36 58 34 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 16


Слайд 16

But Most Americans Continue to Support U.S. Military Campaign Against ISIS __ of the U.S. military campaign against Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria 100 % Approve 54 53 57 31 29 33 63 30 63 64 26 28 July 2015 Dec 2015 Disapprove 0 Aug Sept Oct 2014 2014 2014 Feb 2015 Note: September 2014 survey asked about Barack Obama’s plan for a military campaign against militants in Iraq and Syria. August 2014 survey asked about U.S. airstrikes against militants in Iraq only. Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 17


Слайд 17

Most Republicans Favor Sending U.S. Ground Troops to Iraq and Syria __ the U.S. sending ground troops to fight Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria Favor Oppose 47% TOTAL 47% 66 Republican 48 Independent Democrat Don't know 33 28 47 64 6% 5 5 4 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 18


Слайд 18

And the Public Is Optimistic About ISIS Fight in Long-Term U.S. and its allies will __ in their military campaign against Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria Definitely/Probably fail Definitely/Probably succeed 66 55% 36% 27 July 2015 December 2015 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 19


Слайд 19

NATO AND RUSSIA January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 20


Слайд 20

NATO Support Steady in U.S. Favorable view of NATO 09-15 Change 13-15 Change 2009 2011 2013 2015 % % % % U.S. 53 54 49 49 -4 0 Canada — — 57 56 — -1 France 71 70 58 64 -7 +6 Germany 73 60 59 55 -18 -4 Italy 64 — 60 64 0 +4 Poland 75 72 64 74 -1 +10 Spain 56 62 42 47 -9 +5 UK 63 63 59 60 -3 +1 Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 21


Слайд 21

Americans More Ready Than Europeans to Use Force to Defend NATO Allies If Russia got into a serious military conflict with one of its neighboring countries that is our NATO ally, do you think our country should use military force to defend that country? 56% U.S. 53 Canada 48 EU median Note: EU median includes France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 22


Слайд 22

… But Deep U.S. Partisan Divide on Russia-Ukraine Democrats Republicans % % U.S. should use military force to defend NATO ally against Russia 47 69 +22 Support for NATO sending arms to the Ukrainian gov’t 39 60 +21 Increase economic sanctions on Russia 23 40 +17 Support for Ukraine becoming a NATO member 59 71 +12 Russia is a major military threat to its neighbors 56 67 +11 Russia is to blame for violence in eastern Ukraine 39 50 +11 Support for Western countries providing economic aid to Ukraine 60 69 +9 Diff Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 23


Слайд 23

CHINA January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 24


Слайд 24

China Seen Unfavorably by More Than Half of Americans U.S. views of China 80 % Favorable 52 43 50 42 35 39 51 49 42 39 52 55 54 40 38 36 36 40 37 35 38 29 Unfavorable 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 25


Слайд 25

Republicans and Older Americans Most Critical of China U.S. views of China Unfavorable 54% TOTAL Republican Favorable 38% 63 27 Independent 50 42 Democrat 51 42 39 18-29 51 30-49 50+ 55 41 64 27 Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 26


Слайд 26

And Republicans More Concerned Than Democrats About Most China-Related Issues __ is a very serious problem Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 27


Слайд 27

Moreover, A Partisan Divide Over the Asia Pivot Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 28


Слайд 28

THE OBAMA REFERENDUM January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 29


Слайд 29

Majority of Americans Disapprove of Obama’s Handling of Foreign Policy __ of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling foreign policy 100 % Approve 49 44 52 41 48 42 52 40 48 44 55 57 37 37 2014 2015 Disapprove 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: NBC/WSJ survey, Dec 6-9, 2015. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 30


Слайд 30

Majority Say Obama Is “Not Tough Enough” on Foreign Policy When it comes to foreign policy and national security Barack Obama is … June 2009 April 2010 Sept 2012 Nov 2013 Aug 2014 Jan 2015 July 2015 Dec 2015 % % % % % % % % 2 2 2 5 3 5 4 2 Not tough enough 38 47 41 51 54 55 53 58 About right 51 41 42 37 36 37 37 34 Don’t know 8 10 15 6 7 3 3 6 Too tough Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 31


Слайд 31

And Criticism of Obama’s Toughness Is a Partisan Affair When it comes to foreign policy and national security Barack Obama is … Too tough Not tough enough About right Don’t know % % % % TOTAL 2 58 34 6 Republican 1 84 9 6 Conservative 1 89 4 5 Moderate/Liberal 1 72 19 7 Independent 3 61 30 6 Democrat 2 35 58 5 Conservative/Moderate 3 45 47 6 Liberal 2 26 69 3 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 32


Слайд 32

ECONOMIC ENGAGEMENT January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 33


Слайд 33

Relative to Other Issues, Trade Ranks Near the Bottom of Americans’ Concerns and Always Has Top priority for the president and Congress --Bush-- -------------------------------------------Obama------------------------------------------2007 % 2009 % 2010 % 2011 % 2012 % 2013 % 2014 % 2015 % Defending against terrorism 80 76 80 73 69 71 73 76 Strengthening nation’s economy 68 85 83 87 86 86 80 75 Reducing the budget deficit 53 53 60 64 69 72 63 64 Dealing with immigration* 55 41 40 46 39 39 40 52 Protecting the environment 57 41 44 40 43 52 49 51 Dealing with moral breakdown in country 47 45 45 43 44 40 39 48 Dealing with global warming 38 30 28 26 25 28 29 38 Dealing with global trade issues 34 31 32 34 38 31 28 30 *Before 2014, question asked about ‘illegal immigration.’ Source: Pew Research Center survey, Jan 7-11, 2015. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 34


Слайд 34

Americans Say Trade Is Good for the Country Growing trade and business ties with other countries are a good thing 100 % 83 78 80 84 81 14 country median 76 78 65 66 2009 2010 68 U.S. 59 53 40 2002 2007 2008 2011 2012 2013 2014 Note: 14 country median based on countries surveyed in 2002, 2007-2010 and 2014. U.S. not included in median. Source: Spring 2014 Global Attitudes survey. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 35


Слайд 35

Yet Few Think Trade Deals Boost the Economy Free trade agreements … 2009 Make economy grow 25% 2010 2015 31 19 2009 Make wages higher 11 2010 8 11 Make wages lower Slow economy down 43 Create jobs 13 2010 17 8 49 45 46 46 53 Don't make a difference 18% 24 25 2015 Lead to job losses 34 42% 2009 2015 Don't make a difference 24 34 33 55 Don't make 19 a difference 24 28 Note: “Other” and “Don’t know” responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center survey, May 12-18, 2015. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 36


Слайд 36

Despite Such Skepticism, Half of Americans Support TPP TPP will be __ for the U.S. Bad thing 29% Good thing 49% 9% Don't know 13% Haven't heard enough/ Neither (VOL) Question wording: “The United States is negotiating a free-trade agreement with countries in the Asia-Pacific region called the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Do you think this trade agreement would be a good thing for our country or a bad thing?” Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 37


Слайд 37

And Half Back TTIP TTIP will be a __ for our country Good thing 2015 2014 Bad thing Haven't heard enough/Neither (VOL) 50% 53 21% 20 17% 16 Question wording: “As you may know, the United States and the European Union are negotiating a free-trade agreement called the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, or TTIP. Do you think this trade agreement will be a good thing for our country or a bad thing?” Source: 2015 Pew Research Center survey. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 38


Слайд 38

A Significant Partisan Divide Exists on Both TPP and TTIP __ would be a good thing for the U.S. Dem-Rep Diff Republican Democrat % % TPP 43 51 +8 TTIP 45 59 +14 Source: 2015 Pew Research Center survey. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 39


Слайд 39

All Pew Research Center reports and data are available online at www.pewresearch.org January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 40


Слайд 40


×

HTML:





Ссылка: