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Deloitte’s 2015 Pre-Thanksgiving Survey Results

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Embracing retail disruption 2015 pre-Thanksgiving pulse survey November 23, 2015


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Executive summary Black Friday is expected to surpass Cyber Monday as the most popular online shopping day. More than half (58%) of consumers surveyed have started their holiday gift spending, and on average have completed 20% of their holiday purchases (compared to 18% in 2014). About half (46%) of these holiday purchases were bought on sale or with a coupon (up from 41% in 2014). Over half of respondents (57%) plan on shopping over the Thanksgiving weekend. Consumers continue to shift their Thanksgiving weekend spending toward online channels. Retailer and Deal websites will be the primary information sources for Black Friday sales. More than half (51%) of in-store Thanksgiving shoppers will start shopping by 6 pm; and 62% of Black Friday shoppers will start shopping by 9 am. Nearly one third (30%) of respondents plan to shop the Saturday after Thanksgiving to support local businesses. 63% of consumers surveyed disagree with stores being open on Thanksgiving, with 56% feeling more loyal to those who close on Thanksgiving. Additionally, 50% will hold off purchasing if their preferred store is not open on either Thanksgiving or Black Friday. 2 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.


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Spending pulse check


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81 percent of respondents expect to spend the same or more as compared with their spending plans a few months ago (same as last year) How do your holiday spending plans compare to just a month or two ago? I plan to spend more 30% I plan to spend the same amount I plan to spend less 4 Note: Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding +2 vs. 2014 51% 18% -2 vs. 2014 -2 vs. 2014 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.


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Shopping timing & venue plans


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Black Friday and Saturday will remain the most popular in-store shopping days In-store Thursday (Thanksgiving Day, November 26) 14% Friday (Black Friday, November 27) 44% Saturday (November 28) 35% Sunday (November 29) Monday (November 30) 6 48% in 2014 19% 10% Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.


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Black Friday to surpass Cyber Monday as the most popular online shopping day Online Thursday (Thanksgiving Day, November 26) 24% Friday (Black Friday, November 27) 66% Saturday (November 28) 49% Sunday (November 29) 37% Monday (November 30) None of the above 7 48% in 2014 52% 51% in 2014 14% Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.


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Consumers continue to shift their Thanksgiving weekend spending to online channels What percentage of your spending during the Thanksgiving weekend is expected to be through the following shopping channels? (Base: 57% shopping over the Thanksgiving weekend) +2 vs. 2014 5% 36% - 9 vs. 2014 59% Online In-store +7 vs. 2014 Catalog Among the 57% planning on shopping over the Thanksgiving weekend, 87% plan to shop online, while 53% plan to shop in-stores 8 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.


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More than half (51%) of Thanksgiving shoppers will start shopping by 6 pm; and 62% of Black Friday shoppers will start shopping by 9 am W hat time do you expect to go to the store on Thanksgiving Day? (Base: 14% shopping in stores on Thanksgiving Day) ‫‏‬ ‫‏‬ Earlier than 5 pm 23% W hat time do you expect to go to the store on the Friday after Thanksgiving? (Base: 44% shopping in stores on Thanksgiving Day) ‫‏‬ ‫‏‬ Midnight 1 am 5 pm 12% 2% 10% 2 am 6 pm 7 pm 19% 1% 3 am 2% 4 am 8% 4% 5 am 8 pm 9 pm 10 pm 17% 3% 5% 8% 6 am 9% 7am 8 am 9 am 11 pm or later Unsure 9 8% 6% 10 am or later Unsure 7% 10% 7% 22% 16% Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.


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Deal perceptions: When and where


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Retailer and Deal websites will be the primary information sources for Black Friday sales Retailers’‫‏‬websites 62% Websites dedicated to featuring Black Friday deals 58% Newspapers 41% Email 38% Mailers / flyers 36% TV or radio commercials 29% Mobile device (via app or text message) 26% Social media sites (blogs, discussion groups, or social networks) 24% In‫‏‬retailers’‫‏‬stores 20% Other websites None‫‏‬of‫‏‬the‫‏‬above;‫‏‬I‫‏‬won’t‫‏‬be‫‏‬looking‫‏‬for‫‏‬ … 18% 3% Percentages based on weekend holiday shopper base ‫‏‬ Almost half (46%) of shoppers will spend no more than 1 hour researching Black Friday deals; another 40% expect to spend 1-2 hours researching deals 11 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.


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Consumer perceptions


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Half of consumers find in-store & online deals to be comparable (up from 45% in 2014); 37% consumers say‫‏‬Black‫‏‬Friday‫‏‬deals‫‏‬aren’t‫‏‬as‫‏‬good‫‏‬as‫‏‬they‫‏‬were Consumer perceptions I often find retailers offer comparable deals online and in stores during the Thanksgiving weekend 50% +5 vs.2014 The Black Friday deals are not as good as they used to be 37% I’ll‫‏‬likely‫‏‬purchase‫‏‬later‫‏‬in‫‏‬the‫‏‬holiday‫‏‬season‫‏‬because‫‏‬I‫‏‬ anticipate better promotions 35% I prefer the early Black Friday promotions that retailers offer before Thanksgiving versus shopping on Black Friday 33% I expect retailers will offer better deals online than in the store on Black Friday 27% The best deals of the season are still on Black Friday 26% I’ll‫‏‬likely‫‏‬purchase‫‏‬earlier‫‏‬in‫‏‬the‫‏‬holiday‫‏‬season‫‏‬because‫‏‬of‫‏‬ concerns that merchandise may run out 25% Black Friday deals are better than they used to be 13 +11 vs. 2014 Percent of respondents who agree/ strongly agree 10% Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.


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Store hour impact on loyalty & perceptions


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A majority (63%) of consumers disagree with stores being open on Thanksgiving, with 56% feeling more loyal to those who close on Thanksgiving. Store hour impact on consumer perceptions & loyalty I disagree with stores being open on Thanksgiving 63% I feel more loyal to retailers who close on Thanksgiving 56% I will hold out to shop at my preferred retailer(s) (even) if they‫‏‬aren’t‫‏‬open‫‏‬on‫‏‬Thanksgiving‫‏‬Day‫‏‬or‫‏‬Black‫‏‬Friday 50% I feel more loyal to retailers who close on Black Friday 29% I will make a purchase at a non-preferred retailer on Thanksgiving to avoid waiting for Black Friday I feel more loyal to a retailer that opens its doors on Thanksgiving Day and allows me to shop 15 14% 7% Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.


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About the survey This survey was commissioned by Deloitte and conducted online by an independent research company between November 16-17, 2015. It polled a national sample of 1,000 consumers and has a margin of error for the entire sample of plus or minus three percentage points. 16 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.


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As‫‏‬used‫‏‬in‫‏‬this‫‏‬document,‫“‏‬Deloitte”‫‏‬refers to Deloitte LLP. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting. This publication contains general information only and is based on the experiences and research of Deloitte practitioners. Deloitte is not, by means of this publication, rendering business, financial, investment, or other professional advice or services. This publication is not a substitute for such professional advice or services, nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your business, you should consult a qualified professional advisor. Deloitte, its affiliates, and related entities shall not be responsible for any loss sustained by any person who relies on this publication. Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited


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