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5 Global Mega Trends to Pay Attention To

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Inquentia Trend Report 2015 Meet Five Global Mega Trends to pay attention to. Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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Looking into the future is always a challenge. Tomorrow is built today. Still we know from history that the future is far too complex to predict. Mega Trends can however be a helpful guide on the way. A Mega Trend is a global, sustained and macro economic force of development that impacts business, economy, society, cultures and personal lives, and thereby defining the world of our future. Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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Inquentia Trend Report 2015. In preparation of this report we have performed substantial desk research covering a large number of reports and publications, often with a 15-20 year outlook. Most reports have been published by official global institutions and institutes over the last five years. We have chosen to present key trends that seem consistent across a large amount of sources. See full list of sources in appendix. 5 Copyright Inquentia Group AB   The Inquentia Trend Report 2015 will give you a glimpse of Five Global Mega Trends that may need some attention from your side already today.   N.B. Not all mega trends are presented here. www.inquentia.com


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Five Global Mega Trends. 1. Digital Society. 2. Aging Population. 3. Urbanization. 4. Global Growth. 5. Sustainability. Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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Five Global Mega Trends. Let’s start! 1. Digital Society. 2. Aging Population. 3. Urbanization. 4. Global Growth. 5. Sustainability. Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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Global Mega Trend Digital Society. The digital society connects both people and objects, digitizes goods and services, enriches everything with information and automates human labor. Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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Global Mega Trend Digital Society. In short:? •  The world goes online. •  Everything turns digital. •  Everything gets connected. •  Data goes BIG. •  Work is automated. Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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Digital Society explained. What does it mean… •  The world goes online. Information and communication technology is gaining scope and accessibility, mobile first. Physical goods and data are becoming •  Everything turns digital. digitized – and digital goods become corporeal. •  Everything gets connected. Everything – people, objects, infrastructure – has sensors, and communicates via the cloud. •  Data goes BIG. •  Work is automated. Copyright Inquentia Group AB We can collect, create, and analyze more and more information: “Big Data” evolves even further. Robotics and sophisticated software is beginning to replace more and more types of work. www.inquentia.com


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Five Global Mega Trends. Next up: 1. Digital Society. 2. Aging Population. 3. Urbanization. 4. Global Growth. 5. Sustainability. Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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Global Mega Trend Aging Population. The world is growing older. A proportionally smaller workforce supports more seniors, who are more active and engaged as workers and consumers. Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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Global Mega Trend Aging Population. In short:? •  The world is growing older. •  Aging pressuring public spend. •  Seniors becoming more active workers and consumers. Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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Aging Population explained. What does it mean… •  The world is growing older. •  Aging pressuring public spend. •  Seniors becoming more active workers and consumers. Copyright Inquentia Group AB More of us live longer: Western and developing economies alike face acute adjustment. Less working age people to support more seniors result in dramatic welfare spend. The seniors of tomorrow are more physically, professionally and economically engaged. www.inquentia.com


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Five Global Mega Trends. Next up: 1. Digital Society. 2. Aging Population. 3. Urbanization. 4. Global Growth. 5. Sustainability. Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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Global Mega Trend Urbanization. More and more of us are moving into cities, mainly in the developing world. Cities are becoming mega-sized, catalyze growth, and become innovation labs. Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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Global Mega Trend Urbanization. In short: •  The world is rapidly urbanizing. •  Growth is concentrated. •  Cities serve as wealth engines. •  Cities become smart. Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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Urbanization explained. What does it mean… •  The world is rapidly urbanizing. Urbanization is accelerating worldwide: we are becoming an urban world. •  Growth is concentrated. Cities become mega-sized, and growth is concentrated in the developing world. •  Cities serve as wealth engines. Scale and network effects of urbanization drive productivity and efficiency gain. •  Cities become smart. Cities become “smart” through technology, and act as innovation labs. Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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Five Global Mega Trends. Next up: 1. Digital Society. 2. Aging Population. 3. Urbanization. 4. Global Growth. 5. Sustainability. Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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Global Mega Trend Global Growth. Everything is growing – populations, economies, and wealth. The developing world is a growth engine as the global middle class grows, particularly in Asia. Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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Global Mega Trend Global Growth. In short: •  Global population continues to grow. •  The global middle class expands. •  Economic activity shifts to Asia. •  Developing world is the growth engine. Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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Global Growth explained. What does it mean… •  Global population continues to grow. Even as fertility trends drop, our population continues to expand in absolute numbers. •  The global middle class expands. A global middle class emerges, driven mainly by economic growth in Asia. •  Economic activity shifts to Asia. China and India take their place in the global economy. •  Developing world is the growth engine. Developing economies become the main sources of global economic growth. Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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Five Global Mega Trends. Next up: 1. Digital Society. 2. Aging Population. 3. Urbanization. 4. Global Growth. 5. Sustainability. Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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Global Mega Trend Sustainability. The consequences of climate change and unsustainable resource depletion are hitting home. Corporate sustainability is an urgent need - and a competitive advantage. Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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Global Mega Trend Sustainability. In short:? •  Climate change hits home. •  Resource stress becomes acute. •  Corporate sustainability pays off. Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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Sustainability explained. What does it mean… •  Climate change hits home. Climate change hits home, through •  Resource stress becomes acute. •  Corporate sustainability pays off. Copyright Inquentia Group AB temperature changes and extreme weather events. Demand and consumption of finite resources grows – creating acute shortages. Business starts to recognize the acute need, and market opportunity, of sustainability practices. www.inquentia.com


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Summary   Meet Five Global Mega Trends to pay attention to. 1. Digital Society. The digital society connects both people and objects, digitizes goods and services, enriches everything with information and automates human labor. 2. Aging Population. The world is growing older. A proportionally smaller workforce supports more seniors, who are more active and engaged as workers and consumers. 3. Urbanization. More and more of us are moving into cities, mainly in the developing world. Cities are becoming mega-sized, catalyze growth, and become innovation labs. 4. Global Growth. Everything is growing – populations, economies, and wealth. The developing world is a growth engine as the global middle class grows, particularly in Asia. 5. Sustainability. The consequences of climate change and unsustainable resource depletion are hitting home. Corporate sustainability an urgent need and a competitive advantage. Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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Discover our Tool Box INSIGHT DEVELOPMENT Copyright Inquentia Group AB STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT Learn more at www.inquentia.com PEOPLE DEVELOPMENT


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Let us know if we can help! We are an innovative and insightful business consultancy based in Greater Copenhagen, Scandinavia. In a world of increased ambiguity and accelerating change, we help companies identify, explore and develop strategic opportunities for innovation, growth and renewal. Always from a market and customer perspective. We also make sure to involve your team to utilize their skills and develop their capabilities, resulting in ownership and faster implementation. Visit www.inquentia.com - or contact us at info@inquentia.com Copyright Inquentia Group AB


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Appendix Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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In chronological order Report sources from 2015 Photographs: All pictures from Dreamstime.com or Depositphotos.com, with all rights reserved by their respective photographers. World  Economic  Forum  and  INSEAD.  Soumitra  Du6a,  Thierry  Geiger,  Bruno  Lanvin  (eds.).   The  Global  Informa/on  Technology  Report  2015:  ICTs  for  Inclusive  Growth.  Geneva,  2015.     EY.  Megatrends  2015:  Making  sense  of  a  world  in  mo/on.  2015.         Deloi6e.  Technology,  Media  &  Telecommunica/ons  Predic/ons  2015.  United  Kingdom,  London,  2015.       OECD  and  IEA.  Energy  and  Climate  Change.  World  Energy  Outlook  Special  Report.  France,  Paris,  2015.     EPRS.  David  Eatock.  European  Parliament  briefing.  The  Silver  Economy.  July  2015.       Mat  Smith.  Japan’s  ridiculous  robot  hotel  is  actually  serious  business.  Engadget.com.  July  31,  2015.       Ministry  of  Defence.  Global  Strategic  Trends  -­‐  Out  to  2045.  FiWh  EdiXon.  United  Kingdom,  June  2014.       McKinsey  and  Company.  Richard  Dobbs,  James  Manyika,  Jonathan  Woetzel.  No  Ordinary  Disrup/on:  The  Four  Global  Forces  Breaking  All  the  Trends.  May   2015.     Cisco.  Cisco  Visual  Networking  Index:  Global  Mobile  Data  Traffic  Forecast  Update  2014–2019  White  Paper.  February  2015.       PWC.  Will  the  shi[  in  global  economic  power  con/nue?  February  2015.       Timothy  Aeppel.  What  Clever  Robots  Mean  for  Jobs.  Wall  Street  Journal.  February  24,  2015.             Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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In chronological order Report sources from 2014 Photographs: All pictures from Dreamstime.com or Depositphotos.com, with all rights reserved by their respective photographers. CDP. CDP S&P 500 Climate Change Report 2014. CDP North America. 2014.   McKinsey. Sheila Bonini, Steven Swartz. Profits with purpose: How organizing for sustainability can benefit the bottom line. 2014.   OECD. "The Digital Economy, new business models and key features" in Addressing the Tax Challenges of the Digital Economy. Paris, 2014.   ITU. René Arnold, Martin Waldburger. The Impact of Data on ICT Business Models. 2014.   Global Entrepreneurship Monitor. Mark Hart, Jonathan Levie, Karen Bonner, Cord-Christian Drews. United Kingdom 2014 Monitoring Report. 2014.   BBVA. Reinventing the Company in the Digital Age. 2014.   Helpage.org. Global AgeWatch Index 2014. Population Ageing Maps.   United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision. New York, 2014.   Alison Sander, Meldon Wolfgang. The Rise of Robotics. BCG Perspectives. August 27, 2014.   SHRM Foundation. The Aging Workforce. Alexandria, VA, United States, June 2014.   Center for Strategic and International Studies and McAfee. Net Losses: Estimating the Global Cost of Cybercrime. June 2014.   Bill Siwicki. Mobile commerce will be nearly half of e-commerce by 2018. Internetretailer.com, March 10, 2014.   KPMG. Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments. February 2014.   Pew Research Center. Rakesh Kochhar. 10 Projections for the global population in 2050. February, 2014. Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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In chronological order Report sources from 2013 Photographs: All pictures from Dreamstime.com or Depositphotos.com, with all rights reserved by their respective photographers. NEMODE 3K. Patrik Karrberg, Jonathan Liebeneau. New Business Models in the Digital Economy - Mobile service platforms and the app economy. London, 2013.   Deloitte. Resetting Horizons - Human Capital Trends 2013. 2013.   Digitalcenter.org. The 2013 Digital Future Report. Surveying The Digital Future. University of Southern California, 2013.   RAND Corporation. Hoorens Stijn, Benoit Guerin et al. Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU. Santa Monica, California, United States, 2013.   United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population Ageing 2013. New York, 2013.   ESPAS. Daniel Gros, Cinzia Alcidi. The Global Economy in 2030: Trends and Strategies for Europe. November 2013. McKinsey Global Institute. Open data: Unlocking innovation and performance with liquid information. October 2013.   Carl Benedikt Frey, Michael A. Osborne. The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation? University of Oxford, United Kingdom, September, 2013.   Jacques Bughin and James Manyika. Measuring the full impact of digital capital. McKinsey Quarterly, July 2013.   Knut Haanaes, David Michael, Jeremy Jurgens, Subramanian Rangan. Making Sustainability Profitable. Harvard Business Review. March 2013.   Standard & Poor's Ratings Services. Global Aging 2013: Rising To The Challenge. March, 2013.   MIT Sloan Management Review. David Kiron, Nina Kruschwitz, Knut Haanaes, Martin Reeves and Eugene Goh. The Innovation Bottom Line. February 5, 2013.   Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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In chronological order Report sources from 2012 Photographs: All pictures from Dreamstime.com or Depositphotos.com, with all rights reserved by their respective photographers. Oxford Economics. Future trends and market opportunities in the world’s largest 750 cities. 2012.   Michael Cox. Power Shifts, Economic Change and the Decline of the West? Internatonal Relations 26 (4), 2012.   National Intelligence Council. Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. United States, December 2012.   CSIRO. Stefan Hajkowicz, Hannah Cook, Anna Littleboy. Our Future World: Global megatrends that will change the way we live. Brisbane, Australia, September 2012.   The Boston Consulting Group and Telenor Group. The Socio-Economic Impact of Mobile Health. April 2012.   ESPAS. Álvaro de Vasconcelos (dir). Global Trends 2030 - Citizens in an Interconnected and Polycentric World. France, March 2012.   World Economic Forum. The Water Resources Group: Background, Impact and the Way Forward. 26 January 2012.       Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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In chronological order Report sources from 2011 Photographs: All pictures from Dreamstime.com or Depositphotos.com, with all rights reserved by their respective photographers.     Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. Trend Compendium 2030. 2011.   World Economic Forum. John R. Beard, Simon Biggs, David E. Bloom, Linda P. Fried, Paul Hogan, Alexandre Kalache, and S. Jay Olshansky, eds. Global Population Ageing: Peril or Promise. Geneva, 2011.   World Health Organization. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. National Institute on Aging. Global Health and Aging. October 2011.   Duncan Jefferies. How the ‘internet of things’ could radically change local government. The Guardian, August 18, 2011.   McKinsey Global Institute. Big data: The next frontier for innovation, competition, and productivity. June 2011.   Martin Hilbert, Priscila López. The World’s Technological Capacity to Store, Communicate, and Compute Information. Science, Vol. 332 no. 6025 pp. 60-65. April 2011.   Danny Quah. The Global Economy’s Shifting Centre of Gravity. Global Policy Volume 2, Issue 1. January 2011. PWC. The accelerating shift of global economic power: challenges and opportunities. January 2011.        Copyright Inquentia Group AB www.inquentia.com


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