4 High-Yielding Alternative Energy Investments
Pattern Energy Group Inc Sponsor: Pattern Energy Group LP, established by Riverstone, a private equity firm that runs the world’s largest renewable energy fund Has constructed, managed 3 GW of wind power since 2003 Management: CEO Mike Garland, 25 years experience financing, building energy infrastructure projects Ran Babcock & Brown's North American Infrastructure Group, grew it to $12 billion in assets under management in just 5 years
Wind Energy Portfolio 11 projects in 7 different wind regions, 91% under long-term contract to utilities with average credit rating of “A”
Near Term Growth Catalyst Pattern Energy Group has right of first offer on 441 MW of existing wind farm projects. Pattern Energy has a growing backlog of potential drop downs for Pattern Energy Group Inc
Long-Term Growth Catalyst Pattern Energy has 3 GW of projects in its pipeline International diversification into Caribbean and Chile Potentially longer contracts, 185 MW project to be completed 2016 has 25 year PPA
Risks Conversion of class B shares in 2015 will dilute investors 29% Pattern Energy Group is guiding for 10%-12% annual growth in cash available for distribution (CAFD) Investors should watch focus on CAFD/share Current debt $1.7 billion, EBITDA/interest coverage just 1.7 Risk that PPAs won’t be renewed at similar rate due to growth in renewable energy lowering long-term electricity rates. Lower future PPA rates could threaten CAFD and distribution Rising interest rates potentially threaten ability to make future accretive acquisitions and grow distribution.
Pattern Energy Group Inc Bottom Line Strong growth potential and decent yield makes Pattern Energy Group Inc a better renewable energy investment than most However, current yield combined with slower probable distribution growth rate than other yieldCos makes Pattern Energy Group Inc a hold at current prices. Risks include heavy debt, lack of project diversification (for now) and upcoming 29% share dilution Better alternatives available
NextEra Energy NextEra Energy, one of the fastest growing utilities in America 42.6 GW of capacity, composed of Florida Light and Power, NextEra Energy Resources Florida Light and Power has 4.7 million regulated customers Provides stable cash flows to support 2.9% yield that has grown at 8.4% annually over last 7 years Analysts expect 6.5% annual dividend growth over next decade Sponsor of NextEra Energy Partners, one of the most promising solar and wind investments in America
NextEra Energy Partners: Strong Sponsor=strong growth NextEra Energy Resources has portfolio of 11 GW of solar and wind projects throughout 24 states and 4 Canadian provinces Current backlog of 4.4 GW worth of projects to be completed by the end of 2016 NextEra Energy Partners IPOed with 10 solar and wind projects totaling 990 MW capacity Right of first offer on 2.539 GW additional projects 160% short-term capacity growth NextEra Energy Partners guiding for 12%-15% distribution growth through 2016 Current yield 2.8%
NextEra Energy Bottom Line NextEra Energy represents the best electrical utility in America Fast growing, well diversified into gas, nuclear, and wind The largest renewable portfolio in the country and will grow 40% by the end of 2016 NextEra Energy makes the perfect sponsor for NextEra Energy Partners 160% capacity growth through drop downs already scheduled only covers 23% of NextEra Energy’s renewable capacity Second best renewable energy income investment in America Only risk is solar/wind electrical rates fall long-term, future PPA contracts will result in CAFD declines
Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners: Clean Energy Blue Chip Source: BREP investor presentation July 15, 2014
Strong Growth Through Acquisitions Source: BREP investor presentation July 15, 2014
Consistent Organic Growth Source: BREP investor presentation July 15, 2014
International Diversification of Hydro, Solar, and Wind Power 30% capacity growth through project backlog Targeting North America, Europe, and South America 84% of cash flows from Hydro power, solar and wind major growth catalysts 93% of cash flows contracted to inflation indexed PPAs, weighted average length remaining 17 years Unlike solar and wind, who have inherent PPA risk (falling rates results in future contracts locked in at far lower prices) Hydro has limited supply and steadier long-term prices. Highest (5.3%), safest, (60%-70% payout ratio) and most reliable yield makes Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners the best renewable energy income investment in America.
Highest, Safest, Most Reliable Yield in Renewable Energy Source: BREP investor presentation July 15, 2014
Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners Bottom Line Best managed renewable energy income investment in America Brookfield Asset Management, over 100 years experience managing real estate, utilities. and infrastructure $175 billion under management Largest, most diversified asset base in its industry High yield, consistent 5% distribution growth and average distribution coverage ratio of 1.53 makes Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners a “buy and hold forever” investment. Long-term total return target 10% (5% yield+5% distribution growth) vs market’s 1873-2013 compound annual total return of 9.2% Market beating total returns with 57% less volatility (beta .43)
The Future Of Renewable Energy Income Investing is Bright Boom in renewable energy is causing more capacity builders to retain projects and consider yieldCos Especially true in Solar industry SunEdison has IPOed TerraForm Power SunPower has retained 517 MW of solar projects and is considering a yieldCo to help finance additional growth First Solar, Jinko Solar, and Canadian Solar all considering yieldCos Pure Solar yieldCos are higher risk than wind, hydro or hybrid structured yieldCos.
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