Понравилась презентация – покажи это...
Rising to the challenge of establishing a climate smart agriculture Andy Jarvis, CCAFS
2013 1. What is Climate Smart Agriculture?
2013 Why is CSA important? - Adaptation Global wheat and maize yields: response to warming
2013 Why is CSA important? – Food Security Climate drives yield variation: our systems are sensitive to climate, not resilient to it
2013 Why is CSA important? - Mitigation Agriculture-related activities are 19-29% of global greenhouse gas emissions (2010) Agriculture production (e.g., fertilizers, rice, livestock, energy) Land-use change and forestry including drained peatlands Industrial processes Waste Percent, 100% = 50 gigatonnes CO2e per year Non-Ag Energy 70 11 4 2
2013 Why is CSA important? - Mitigation “Business as usual” (BAU) agriculture emissions would comprise >70% of allowable emissions to achieve a 2°C world Gt CO2e per year Non-agricultural emissions Agricultural and land-use change emissions >70% 48 85 21
2013 2. There are significant successes in CSA
CSA options involve farms, landscapes, food systems and services landscape crops livestock fish food system services Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT
CSA options for landscapes landscape Ensure close links between practice and policy (e.g. land use zoning) Manage livestock & wildlife over wide areas Increase cover of trees and perennials Restore degraded wetlands, peatlands, grasslands and watersheds Create diversity of land uses Harvest floods & manage groundwater Address coastal salinity & sea surges Protect against large-scale erosion
Example: Sustainable land management in Ethiopia Photos: W. Bewket, AAU 190,000 ha rehabilitated 98,000 households benefit Cut-and-carry feed for livestock 380,000 m3 waterways 900,000 m3 compost
CHINA Paying for ecosystem services 2.5 million farmers paid to set aside land and plant trees Sequestered over 700,000 tonnes of carbon 2 million ha rehabilitated – reducing erosion Increased yields
CSA options for crops & fields crops Crop diversification and “climate-ready” species and cultivars Altering cropping patterns & planting dates Better soil and nutrient management e.g. erosion control and micro-dosing Improved water use efficiency (irrigation systems, water micro-harvesting) Monitoring & managing new trends in pests and diseases Agroforestry, intercropping & on-farm biodiversity
AFRICA Drought-tolerant maize boosts food security DTMA has developed 100 new varieties released across 13 countries; 2 million smallholders Reduces need to use more land Resilience to drought Yields up to 35% more grain
Sequestration of carbon in soil and trees NIGER Bringing back the Sahel’s ‘underground forest’ 5 million ha of land restored, over 200 million trees re-established Reduces drought impacts Additional half a million tonnes of grain per year
CSA options for livestock livestock High-quality diets that increase conversion efficiency and reduce emissions Herd management e.g. sale or slaughter at different ages Changing patterns of pastoralism and use of water points Livestock diversification and “climate-ready” species and breeds Improved pasture management Use of human food waste for pigs & chickens
Example: Forest land use and cattle management in Brazil Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT 45% higher stocking density no increase in pasture area better pasture quality 40% reduction in emissions agriculture decoupled from deforestation
CSA options for fisheries & aquaculture fish Better physical defences against sea surges Quota schemes matched to monitoring of fish stocks Greater energy efficiency in harvesting Rehabilitation of mangroves & breeding grounds Less dependence of aquaculture on marine fish feed Reducing losses and wastage
CSA options for food systems food system More creative and efficient use of by-products Less energy-intensity in fertilizer production Improving resilience of infrastructure for storage & transport (e.g. roads, ports) Changing diets Greater attention to food safety Reducing post-harvest losses & consumer wastage
Example: “Love Food Hate Waste” in United Kingdom 13 % less household food waste consumers saving $4 billion national water footprint down 4% 3.6 million tonnes CO2eq less per year
CSA options for services services Monitoring & data for food security, climate & ecosystems Early warning systems & weather forecasts Mobile phone, radio & other extension or information for farmers Research that links farmers & science Weather insurance & micro-finance Financial transfers & other “safety nets” for climate shocks
12 million farmers & 40 different crops insured INDIA Weather-based insurance Reduces pressure to bring more land under cultivation Reduces risks Allows farmers to access fertilizer and better seed
Example: Seasonal weather forecasts in Senegal 3 million farmers get forecasts 70 community radio stations better food security outcomes
2. But major scaling up is needed
1.5 billion people depend on Degraded Land USD 7.5 billion lost to extreme Weather (2010) 1 billion more People by 2030 1.4 billion living in Poverty 14% more Food needed per decade Nearly 1 billion going Hungry
Target: Half a billion farmers practicing CSA Mitigation targets? Scholes et al., 2013. Agriculture and Climate Change Mitigation in the Developing World DC Targets (2035) 22% reduction in agricultural emissions relative to the ‘business as usual’ baseline 46% reduction in forestry and land use change, relative to a projection of current trends Target: Half a billion with enhanced adaptive capacity So what are the targets?
Are these targets insurmountable? “63 million customers per day, so 500 million smallholders in the next decade is easy!” Global Harvest Initiative 2013 FAOSTAT World Bank/Standard Chartered GSMA/Deloitte Sub-Saharan Africa
Requires a comprehensive approach Partnerships: research and development, science and policy, public and private Knowledge generation: practices/technologies, programmatic elements (insurance, climate information services) Work on CSA enablers: (sub-)National policies, UNFCCC global process, donor agendas Incentive mechanisms: innovative finance, private sector
& Action Learning Research Evidence of what works in CSA Research Evidence Climate smart villages & broadscale adoption CSA Roll Out Key Working with partners to collect the evidence and to change opinions and worldviews Working with partners to understand what works Working with partners to make it happen Enhanced local adaptation planning processes Policy & Institutional Change Flagship 1: Climate –smart agricultural practices
Alternate-Wetting-and-Drying (AWD) 30% water 20-50% GHG Without compromising yield Keep flooded for 1st 15 days and at flowering Irrigate when water drops to 15 cm below the surface -22% -28% 6.0 4.7 6.4 4.6 Hilly mid-slopes Delta low-lying Summer-Autumn Winter-Spring Sander et al. in press IRRI AWD Conventional
Addressing constraints From national level… to implementation at provincial level…. Slide by Bjoern Ole Sander, IRRI
Coffee-banana intercropping $ ha yr $ ha yr More carbon in the system Diversification Decreases drought impacts Increased income Enhanced food security
Fuente: Rincon, 2013 Animal live weight gain (kg/ha/year) Crop-livestock integration to increase animal live weight gain (kg/ha/year) in the acid soil savannas of Colombia
What if… - we spread agroforestry across Africa? Most of the technologies and practices that mitigate emissions also improve productivity and can contribute to food security and poverty alleviation. PRODUCTIVITY Higher incomes for farmers Healthier animals Biodiversity conservation due to reduced land pressure RESILIENCE Emission Reduction Potential: - 1.8 Gt CO2-eq/yr in 2010 (FAO) - 3.3 Gt CO2-eq/yr in 2050 FOOTPRINT -30% Emissions (Gt CO2-eq/yr) Remaining Gap to 2C Pathway: 3.1 Gt CO2-eq/yr -30% Using already wide-spread technologies currently available: Feeding practices, Animal husbandry, Health management Result: Reduced unproductive share of animals in the herd, higher resource efficiency. Livestock: Higher productivity ? Lower Emission Intensity Based on results of the GLEAM Model, FAO 2013, Extrapolations BAU With CSA 2C Pathway Emissions (kg CO2-eq/kg Milk) Milk Production per Cow Example Dairy: Below 2000 kg milk/cow/year, productivity increases correlate with very significant reductions in emissions intensity. Analysis based on WRI 2013 Approximate area suitable for Agroforestry in Africa: ~ 300 Million Ha 140+ Million People below $1.25 per day
What if… - we spread agroforestry across Africa? Most of the technologies and practices that mitigate emissions also improve productivity and can contribute to food security and poverty alleviation. PRODUCTIVITY Higher incomes for farmers Healthier animals Biodiversity conservation due to reduced land pressure RESILIENCE Emission Reduction Potential: - 1.8 Gt CO2-eq/yr in 2010 (FAO) - 3.3 Gt CO2-eq/yr in 2050 FOOTPRINT -30% Emissions (Gt CO2-eq/yr) Remaining Gap to 2C Pathway: 3.1 Gt CO2-eq/yr -30% Using already wide-spread technologies currently available: Feeding practices, Animal husbandry, Health management Result: Reduced unproductive share of animals in the herd, higher resource efficiency. Livestock: Higher productivity ? Lower Emission Intensity Carbon sequestration potential (2t C/ha/yr.) above and below ground with low growth habit, low tree density and poor site quality, Nair et al. 2009Underlying area 300 million ha, 285 million people, assumed increase in yields +50% (conservative), Analysis based on WRI 2013 BAU With CSA 2C Pathway Emissions (kg CO2-eq/kg Milk) Milk Production per Cow Example Dairy: Below 2000 kg milk/cow/year, productivity increases correlate with very significant reductions in emissions intensity. Approximation of area suitable for Agroforestry and Water Harvesting in Africa: ~ 300 Million Ha PRODUCTIVITY Multiple benefits include: Reduced soil erosion Additional diversified income from wood products Strengthened draught resistance from increased water storage RESILIENCE FOOTPRINT +615 Calories per person/day for 140+ Million poor people Average yield increase 50% Savings of over6 Million tons of synthetic fertilizer Adoption on 150 Million Ha Adoption on300 Million Ha +44 Million Tons +88 Million Tons Food Production Carbon Sequestration - 1 Gt of CO2eper year - 2 Gt of CO2eper year Adoption on 150 Million Ha Adoption on300 Million Ha 2 Gt Co2e storage per year corresponds to ~1/3 of Global Direct Ag Emissions Significantly higher mitigation potential by further increasing tree density and in humid systems Agroforestry can be combined with other practices such as water harvesting for additional impact.
Cereal production Kahrl et al. 2010 World Agroforestry Centre Back of envelope calculations Nitrogen use kg N / ha g N / t ? > US$ 1.5 billion saved Emissions v by 32-67 Mt CO2e yr-1 (20-41% of economic potential for N management) If nitrogen use efficiency could be improved by 5 % points
Partnerships for Scaling Climate-smart Agriculture (P4S)
CSA Alliance Finance working group Policy working group Knowledge working group (FAO & CCAFS) UN SG Climate Summit in Sept One element: CSA Separate, but related: CSA Science Conference March 2015 France
Research in Development
CSA Country Profiles Baseline assessment of current status of CSA WB priorities: engage donors and governments on CSA concept identify entry points for research and investment
Scalable climate smart technologies….
A MAC curve for CSA adaptation
Some “simple” indicators to start with..
Quantitative assessment of Farm-level CSA evidence (Meta-analysis) ICRAF, CIAT 1Includes a range of practices
Crowdsourcing evidence for CSA and climate resilient practice
CSA Compendium Informs CSA prioritization tool Overcome barrier of lack of information about possible CSA options in a given context Informs future research agendas Identify gaps in the literature based on CSA pillar, CSA practice, geographic region, etc. Knowledge Hub for CSA researchers and practitioners Crowdsourcing to develop database, with reliability of data marked
CSA Prioritization Tool - Process Assess tradeoffs for each practice between indicators of CSA pillars and social, economic, and environmental domains between practices within a portfolio Pilots will be conducted starting mid-2014 in Mali, Viet Nam, and Colombia
Ranked List of Practices
Leb by Climate smart villages: Key agricultural activities for managing risks
Strong national engagement
What defines yield? 51% of yield variation is caused by climate for rice
PROBABILISTIC PRECIPITATION FORECAST 33 33 33 Above Normal Below 38 31 31 22 27 51 37 33 31 39 33 28 Agroclimatic Seasonal forecasting
Matching technologies with climate in space and time
Big opportunities for reducing water dependency
Pulling the pieces together Climate resilience Baseline Adapted technologies Adapted technologies + Climate-specific management Adapted technologies + Climate-specific management + Seasonal agroclimatic forecasts Adapted technologies + Climate-specific management + Seasonal agroclimatic forecasts + Efficient resource use + Enabling environment NAPs and NAMAs Climate smartness
Challenge immense, but not insurmountable CSA requires a comprehensive approach. Line up: Technical Financial Policy Two key factors for success: Successfully building a business case for CSA Addressing the constraints head on In summary….
www.ccafs.cgiar.org sign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins Twitter: @cgiarclimate