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World Energy Outlook 2015: Presentation to Press

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© OECD/IEA 2015 London, 10 November 2015


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The start of a new energy era?  2015 has seen lower prices for all fossil fuels  Oil & gas could face second year of falling upstream investment in 2016  Coal prices remain at rock-bottom as demand slows in China  Signals turn green ahead of key Paris climate summit  Pledges of 150+ countries account for 90% of energy-related emissions  Renewables capacity additions at a record-high of 130 GW in 2014  Fossil-fuel subsidy reform, led by India & Indonesia, reduces the global subsidy bill below $500 billion in 2014  Multiple signs of change, but are they moving the energy system in the right direction? © OECD/IEA 2015


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Demand growth in Asia – the sequel Change in energy demand in selected regions, 2014-2040 Mtoe 1 200 900 600 300 0 -300 European United Union States Japan Latin Middle Southeast Africa America East Asia China India By 2040, India’s energy demand closes in on that of the United States, even though demand per capita remains 40% below the world average © OECD/IEA 2015


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Policies spur innovation and tip the balance towards low-carbon Costs in 2040 for different energy sources/technologies, relative to 2014 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% Solar PV Onshore wind Efficient lighting Efficient industrial heat production Upstream oil and gas Innovation reduces the costs of low-carbon technologies & energy efficiency, but – for oil & gas – the gains are offset by the move to more complex fields © OECD/IEA 2015


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A new balancing item in the oil market? Change in production (2015-2020) of US tight oil for a range of 2020 oil prices mb/d 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 $40/bbl $50/bbl $60/bbl $70/bbl $80/bbl $90/bbl $100/bbl Tight oil has created more short-term supply flexibility, but there is no guarantee that the adjustment mechanism in oil markets will be smooth © OECD/IEA 2015


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If oil prices stay lower for much longer: what would it take, what would it mean?  Much more resilient non-OPEC supply & higher output from a stable Middle East could hold the oil price close to $50/bbl until the 2020s  Oil importers gain, each $1/bbl reduction is $15 billion off import bills; major window of opportunity to press ahead with subsidy reform  If lower prices persist for decades, reliance on Middle East oil gets back to 1970s levels; risk of a sharp market rebound if investment falls short  Lower prices could undercut essential policy support for the energy transition: weaker incentives mean 15% of efficiency savings are lost  Reduction in revenues to key producers & boost to global oil demand growth make a prolonged period of lower prices progressively less likely © OECD/IEA 2015


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The big opportunities & uncertainties for natural gas are in Asia Natural gas demand and supply in developing Asia , 2014 & 2040 2040 bcm 1 500 1 200 Imports 900 Conventional 600 Unconventional Additional to 2040 2014 300 Demand Production Developing Asia accounts for almost half of the rise in global gas demand & 75% of the increase in imports, but gas faces strong competition from renewables & coal © OECD/IEA 2015


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A new chapter in China’s growth story 4 9 000 60 Renewables GDP Nuclear 3 000 6 000 2 000 3 000 1 000 Gas 40 Oil Energy demand Energy demand GDP (trillion dollars, PPP) Energy demand (Mtoe) Total primary energy demandChina in China Energy demand in & GDP 20 Coal GDP 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Along with energy efficiency, structural shifts in China’s economy favouring expansion of services, mean less energy is required to generate economic growth © OECD/IEA 2015


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India moving to the centre of the world energy stage Change in demand for selected fuels, 2014-2040 Coal 1 500 (Mtce) Oil 24 Africa 1 000 500 Southeast Asia India (mb/d) Solar PV 1 500 Southeast Asia 16 Africa 1 000 Middle East 8 China European Union 0 United States -500 -8 -1 000 United States European Union Japan Middle East Africa European Union United States 500 India 0 (TWh) India China 0 -16 Japan New infrastructure, an expanding middle class & 600 million new electricity consumers mean a large rise in the energy required to fuel India’s development © OECD/IEA 2015


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Power is leading the transformation of the energy system Global electricity generation by source 3 000 Renewables Coal 6 000 9 000 12 000 TWh 15 000 2014 Change to 2040 Of which: Gas Hydro Wind Nuclear Solar Other renewables Oil Driven by continued policy support, renewables account for half of additional global generation, overtaking coal around 2030 to become the largest power source © OECD/IEA 2015


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Efficiency measures on the rise, but significant potential still exists Share of global mandatory efficiency regulation of final energy consumption 40% Industry  Steam boilers  Process heat  Motors 30% Buildings  Heating/Cooling  Lighting/Appliances 20% Transport 10%  Cars  Trucks  Ships 2005 2014 2040 Energy efficiency policies are introduced in more countries and sectors; they continue to slow demand growth but more can be done © OECD/IEA 2015


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The coverage of climate pledges is impressive Pledges submitted Yet to submit pledges Climate pledges for COP21 are consistent with a temperature rise of 2.7 °C, with investment needs of $13.5 trillion in low-carbon technologies & efficiency to 2030 © OECD/IEA 2015


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Climate pledges decouple power sector emissions from electricity demand 40 20 Electricity generation 30 15 Electricity generation 20 10 10 1990 Emissions (Gt) Generation (thousand TWh) World electricity generation and related CO2 emissions CO2 emissions 2000 2010 CO2 emissions 2020 5 2030 The share of low-carbon power generation grows to almost 45% in 2030 so that power emissions remain flat, while electricity demand grows by more than 40% © OECD/IEA 2015


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Conclusions  Low prices bring gains to consumers, but can also sow the seeds of future risks to energy security: no room for complacency  India’s energy needs are huge: there is a strong shared interest to support India’s push for clean & efficient technologies  China’s transition to a more diversified & much less energy- intensive model for growth re-shapes energy markets  The energy transition is underway, but needs a strong signal from Paris: governments must ring-fence policies against market swings  With looming energy security & environmental challenges, international cooperation on energy has never been more vital © OECD/IEA 2015


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© OECD/IEA 2015 www.worldenergyoutlook.org


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