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Keeping up with Caltrain Ridership Adina Levin - Friends of Caltrain June 2015
Keeping up with Caltrain ridership Underlying trends driving ridership growth How Caltrain can keep up with growth Grade separations Funding and participation opportunities
Ridership doubled in last decade Dot.Com Crash Great Recession Baby Bullet
Fastest-growing transit in Bay Area
Rapid growth in Mountain View, Palo Alto Average weekday ridership growth Rank 2012 2013 2014 Change Palo Alto University 2 4,461 5,469 6,156 38% Mountain View 3 3,670 3,876 4,274 16%
Trains are crowded
Trains are crowded Platforms 4th & King Standing room only
Transit corridor growth State policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, coordinate transportation & land use Accommodate 80% of housing, 60% of job growth in < 5% of land with transit access
Back to the Future Caltrain corridor is original transitoriented development Cities grew around train RWC, PA, MV 1938
Cars off the freeway If Caltrain were shut down, it would take 4-5 extra lanes on Highway 101 to carry the extra rush hour traffic. 1,500 cars/hour/lane 8,000 pax/peak hour trad peak 6,000 pax/peak hour rev. peak
City policies to reduce trips Transportation Demand Management ● Accommodate more people with less cars, traffic, parking demand ● Transit passes, shuttles, carpool, carshare, education/marketing ● Transportation Management Association Nonprofit (typically) ● Funded by employers, developments, parking ● Data, reporting, accountability Established Developing
Goals to reduce drivealone Mountain View North Bayshore ● 45% drivealone (55% today) Downtown Palo Alto ● 30% reduction (55% today)
Changing transportation preferences Younger people driving less… ● Average miles driven by 16 to 34 year-olds dropped by 23% between 2001 & 2009 ● 75% of millennials expect to live in a place where they do not need a car to get around ● Caltrain rider average income $117,000 (could drive if they wanted to) ● 55% are under 35...
Better access to jobs in San Francisco Central Subway 2019 Downtown extension to Transbay 202x Credit: Clem TIllier
Better access to jobs in San Francisco Central Subway 2019 Connects to Powell Street BART and Muni Metro
Diridon and the BART Connection Diridon Station Area Plan ● 20,000+ jobs ● 2600 housing units ● ~20,000 avg daily BART ● ~20,000 avg daily Caltrain ● Up from ~4,000 Caltrain ● 40% drivealone mode share
Double ridership in the next decade “We need to double Caltrain ridership from 60,000 to 120,000 daily trips by the next decade” Carl Guardino, Silicon Valley Leadership Group
Peak hour capacity How many people can travel at peak hour # train cars # people per car (seated, standing, bikes) # trains per hour Even distribution (are some cars less full)
How can Caltrain keep up? Current peak - 5 car trains, 5 trains per hour = 25
1) Surplus cars from LA Metrolink 6 cars x 5 trains per hour = 30
2) Electrification ● Faster acceleration More stops in same end to end time ● Serve underserved stations Lawrence, Santa Clara ● But fewer seats per car 6 trains per hour x 6 car trains
3) Longer platforms, level boarding 8-car trains Level boarding ● faster service ● better for mobility-impaired, strollers, bikes ● more reliable 6 trains/hour x 8 cars = 48
4) Increase frequency Blended system: Caltrain & HSR share tracks Up to 2 HSR trains per hour without passing tracks Up to 4 HSR trains per hour with passing tracks Don’t need to wait for HSR 8 trains per hour x 8 car trains = 64
Grade separations ● Frequency and reliability ● More frequent service leads to stress at intersections ● 40 at-grade crossings remaining (⅔ separated) ● San Mateo County has funding, Santa Clara County does not yet
How can Caltrain keep up? Scenario Peak service Peak hour train cars Today 5x5 25 Metrolink used cars 6x5 30 Electrification 6x6 36 Longer platforms 6x8 48 Increase frequency (w/HSR) 8x8 64 Napkin math - watch for peak hour capacity # from Caltrain
Grade separation options and costs Mountain View ● Rengstorff/Central $120M ● Castro - separate? close to cars?
Grade separation options and costs Palo Alto ● Charleston, Meadow, Churchill ● Trench - $500M to $1B ● Development funds? Local tax?
Cost for capacity improvements
Funding sources Transportation Ballot Measures Santa Clara County (2016) San Mateo County (??) San Francisco (2016, 2018) 2018 - RM3 - renewed bridge tolls High Speed Rail State Cap and Trade funds
Santa Clara County Ballot Measure 2016 - Envision Silicon Valley $3.5 Billion or $7 Billion BART to Diridon (and Santa Clara?) Caltrain Expressways/Freeways Road paving
Upcoming decisions 1) Santa Clara County VTA Call for Projects 2) Transit Center / grade separation planning 3) Planning with High Speed Rail